Well, we’re about to engage in a rather interesting experiment. I’m engaging in it more than you are, but we’re all involved. Sort of. If you’ve paid attention to the lakefront market over the past several years, you’ve likely still not noticed a rather nuanced trend. Don’t feel badly about that, as most of my local market participants haven’t noticed it, either. The loud theme around Lake Geneva over the past five years has been consistent: The Market Is Hot And If You Don’t Hurry Everything Will Be Sold By Tomorrow. That’s the general mood here. The Chicago media reinforces it because clicks are king and the locals run with it. 80% of buyers aren’t necessarily agreeing with the pace, but the other 20%? Man, they’re running and gunning. But beyond the headlines and the social media posts, there have been many ups and downs inside of our lakefront market, and the downs provide buyers an opportunity to secure value in spite of the bullish headlines. Proof you say?
Consider the lakefront market in mid to late 2023. We had just come off a summer where we sold quite a few lakefronts of all varieties, and, as should be excepted, the off-water lake access market was similarly active. But not everything sold, and by the end of 2023 there were a few lakefronts stacked up. The spring of 2024 brought a few more lakefronts, and then something happened: Prices sagged. It didn’t take a dozen on market properties to cause this pause. It only took a few. It didn’t take a year on market before the buyers decided the pricing was too aggressive, it took four weeks. In an environment with no inventory and fevered narratives, the market still found a way to say no to aspirational pricing. By late spring and summer of 2024, sellers adjusted their pricing, buyers bought, and then the sales pattern was reestablished.
Over the course of 2025, we’ve had quite a few lakefront sales. Some of those sales were reported in the Chicago media, some were not. The ones that largely weren’t discussed aloud were sales that I completed, because when I get into the end zone I just hand the ball back to the ref and head to the bench for oxygen, I don’t call the media to tell them what I’ve done. While 2025 has been fairly steady on sales, even if light on total volume, there hasn’t been a truly new lakefront listing hit the open market all year. That is, until this week. Two new lakefronts are on market with showings starting this coming week, and these new listings will tell a rather important tale. Is the market as hot as it seems?
I’ll go out on a limb and say that as of today, it is. Lofty equity markets and a rather meaningful PE liquidity boom should be enough to fuel these two likely sales, though it remains to be seen what the market will say about the exact valuations. The last several open market lakefront listings ultimately sold at discounts to their initial asking prices, so will buyers have that on their minds or will they just see inventory and pounce? What happens next will set the tone for the remainder of the year, and likely the start of 2026. I’ll be here to help if you want to make informed decisions at the lake…