I haven’t been writing too many market updates this year, as you’ve likely noticed. The reason isn’t because I don’t have anything to say. It’s because the market hasn’t yet made its intentions clear, and I’ve been waiting for some variety of revelation to share. In the absence of that decided direction, I’ll write anyway, because I know one thing to be true. Well, two things: Lake Geneva lives and dies on equity market valuations, and a lack of inventory overcomes any other market factors.
That means we have on our hands a very strong market, but it’s yet to prove it this year. Inventory has been constricted, but some of the inventory that does exist is being aggressively yawned at. Sales have been occurring with some pace in our lake access market, but for every pending sale there are two price reductions. For every new piece of inventory that sells quickly there are two pieces that are being ignored. The market is disjointed, which is a hallmark of Lake Geneva, but what gives?
I think there’s some market fatigue present right now. The market has been rushing upward with some purpose since 2012. If you’re the counting sort, that’s fourteen years of bull market. How can we blame buyers for growing weary? There is no absence of interest, but some of the existing inventory is being ignored because of the promise of new inventory. I have one large off market transaction pending sale today, which I’ll let you know about one of these days, or months, but in the mean time, the market has little to show you and even less to say.
I suspect the poor weather this spring is not uniquely helpful. FOMO is difficult to catch in the rain. In spite of my pessimism, I know that these April monsoons will bring May flowers. I should also note something about what I just wrote. Did you know that when I say something like “he can’t speak because of the gold spoon in his mouth” that I know the saying is that of a “silver spoon”? Just as I know it’s April showers bring May flowers. You’d be amazed at how many people wish to correct me when I say something intentionally off course. Anyway, it’s spring and the market is somewhat lethargic, but I wouldn’t expect that to last. Good weather is coming. More inventory is, too. Be patient and ask me about what’s happening behind the scenes. I’ll tell you because my benevolence knows very little end.
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