Wherever I go, whatever I do, the question is always the same. No one wants to know how happy I am to have mowed my lawn for the last time in 2026. The hard frost last weekend gave me the seasonal reprieve that I have for many weeks been anticipating. No one asks me why my pizzas are sometimes perfect and sometimes extraordinarily mediocre. It’s the humidity, maybe. Or the temperature of the flour. It’s something that feels outside of my control, but no one cares. The only thing people ask me: How’s the market?
My answer is generally the same. It’s okay, I say. Then I go on about some houses that recently sold or others that are about to sell, and I end by saying the market is pretty hot. Why is it hot? The people want to know. I tell them it’s hot because buyers are making mistakes in the market, and they don’t care. Are they bag holders? The people ask. I can’t be sure if they are or not, because the term doesn’t apply in a market that has not yet seen a pause. Everyone could be a bag holder when it comes to real estate, but over a long enough period of time, no one has ever been a bag holder here. Someone bought a terrible house in 1922 for far too much money. His friends scoffed. The neighbors giggled. The buyer had made an egregious mistake and purchased a property for an obscene sum: $370 per front foot. What a moron.
The market at the lake is ripping. The real estate narrative when you zoom out is that real estate is soft. Rates are hurting. Luxury buyers are pulling away. Prices are falling. That might be true at 38,000 feet, but on the ground in Lake Geneva the reality is very different. Houses on the lake are selling quickly and with multiple bids. Are buyers making mistakes? You bet they are. But so far no one cares. Thoughtful consideration is a quaint idea at which the lake laughs. I don’t laugh at it, but I also miss a lot of contracts for my buyers because I do not think that every house is worth buying. I do not think that every price is fine. I do not think that, just because there is buying competition, the market is right. In 1998 two guys stood at a car dealership and each begged the dealer to sell him that yellow PT Cruiser. One guy paid a bit more and drove the car home. The other guy lost. But did he? Just because things are harried that doesn’t mean you must be as well.
This isn’t a welcome bit of advice by some buyers. Some wish to throw themselves in front of the bus and you must let them. You are obligated to let them. And if you don’t cheer, then you’re a miser. But enough about a few sales that I don’t like one bit, and more about the market. It’s hot, alright. My bigger question is what’s going to derail it? How can this momentum, which is obvious and undeniable, be slowed?
The answer is that it isn’t going to be slowing down anytime soon. The inventory crunch just won’t let it. NVDA is a mess. MSFT email doesn’t work. I invested in data centers in the ocean right before everyone decided data centers are bad. But none of that matters to the lakefront market at Lake Geneva, because as we seek to understand the market here we’ve learned one very powerful truth. Inventory, or the lack thereof, overrides every other factor that influences a market. A close second place is the equity market, but unless equities enter a prolonged period of low valuations, inventory will rule the day.
So how’s the market? It’s great. People have bought some dumb houses. My buyers have not. If you’d like guidance from a perspective that outlandishly suggests some houses are worth skipping, then I’m here to help. I have two off-market lakefronts closing in the near future, and I’ll be sure to let you know about those soon.