Lake Geneva Lakefront Market Update

The lens through which I view the business of real estate and the economy as a whole is heavily influenced by a variety of smart people with whom I speak on a regular basis. The perspectives they hold were forged by careers in financial and entrepreneurial endeavors, and have, by virtue of their success, served them very, very well. Who would I be to not seek to bolster my own intelligence by listening to and learning from these people who know so much more than I do? These people largely lean pessimistic, and in the summer of 2021 we collectively decided that there was some new level of consumption but that the rush to residential real estate was likely some variety of temporary bubble. Again in 2023 when the markets decided to pause, we ascertained that this was the unwinding of the covid real estate trade and that, while some buyers would continue to pursue real estate with fervor, these were the bag holders, and we would do our best to not mock them. In 2024 when the market seems ready to pause for real, we denounced some of the enthusiasm as being a classic signal of a blow off top. In 2025, the violent momentum returned and we wonder if the AI trade is indeed propping up the equity market, and if the equity market is indeed propping up the housing market. This too shall pass, we assumed. The question today is this: Can a market be a bubble if it never really pops?

Lake Geneva today is unlike anything these eyes have seen in 29 years of full time real estate sales. It’s cute when agents who have sold real estate for a decade, or for four years, or for eleven months, attempt to tell you what it is this market looks like. It’s impossible to understand what’s happening today if you haven’t been at this helm for an eternity. This current pace and remarkable FOMO blows away any sort of momentum that existed in the foment of 2005, and it makes the early covid market look pathetic. The market today is violent. It’s unrelenting. It’s terrible. I, the guy who has perhaps benefited more than anyone from this momentum, absolutely hate it.

You think I’m joking. You think I’m exaggerating. I assure you, I am not. This market is miserable. It’s frantic and it’s spastic and it’s gross. If I could go back to the boring markets of 2015, when value was truly present and the market required a skilled oarsman, I would snap my fingers and go back in the heartbeat. As an added benefit, I would weigh 15 pounds less and my temples and beard would not be nearly this white. Also, my children would be at home getting ready for school right now and in that, things would be so much better. But that’s not possible, because it’s 2025 and my kids are grown and my favorite dogs are dead and my temples are white and this market is very busy making absolutely no sense.

In the last three weeks, here’s what’s happened. Two new lakefronts came to market and both sold. One was the recipient of a bidding war unlike any that I’ve ever seen here. Then another new lakefront came to market and a bidding war ensued. Then a lot that was for sale sold. Then a couple of off market lakefront sales inked. Then, some more inventory that will, in the space of a week or less, likely sell. I’m a party to all of this, benefitting enough, though I wish I could be better serving my clients by encouraging them to just bid more money than they should, but that’s where I pause here. Is this momentum forever? Is it up and to the right until we run out of page? If you’ve answered yes to the above, then perhaps you’ve already forgotten the market of late 2024 into early 2025?

Stocks back then were frothy, too, so we can’t attribute all of this to the potent wealth effect that accompanies elevated stock market returns. In fact, the market has been more or less ripping for the past decade, in case you haven’t checked your portfolio lately. Why now is there so much movement? Why are owners buying lakefront homes and then a year later selling them to buy yet again? What happened to grandma and grandpa’s house at the lake, where generations would learn to swim and fish and sail? Does no one have a bloody bucket of bluegills on Fridays that would soon be coated in flour and fried for dinner? Where did this manic movement come from? And better wondered, how long can it last?

My smart friends and I have agreed that this real estate craving stems from an increase in consumption that found its origin during that first covid summer (2020). Consumption is easy to ramp up, but it’s exceedingly difficult to dial back. Inertia is a hell of a force. So let’s combine a much more aggressive level of consumption with a constricted supply of inventory and an elevated stock market, and then let’s throw in a private equity buying binge that has allowed every HVAC shop or stamping business or widget maker in the country to splash in an ocean of fresh liquidity and what do you have? You have Lake Geneva 2025. Don’t get me wrong, this market is fantastic for the ownership and the buyer enthusiasm is an incredible data point for the overall strength of Lake Geneva, but once in a while, I just wish it would slow down.

I have two new lakefronts coming to market in the next couple of days. If you’d like to know about them, please let me know. In spite of the chaos, I’m still here, still grinding, still trying to make sure my clients don’t make market mistakes. If you want someone to tell you that not every house is worth buying, I might be the only game in town…