It seems like it might be a nice time to remind you that not every sale is reflective of the actual market. This is true during all markets, but it’s uniquely so during times when the market has little, if anything, to offer. If a sale has to happen because a buyer has a fire that can only be quenched by purchasing wildly overpriced real estate, who are we to tell them they cannot be so incredibly detached? The challenge for the Lake Geneva market is to understand the difference between one-offs and patterns. Is the market so unsophisticated that it cannot discern the difference between the two?
I think maybe the answer is yes. Or if not so unsophisticated, perhaps so unintelligent. Transactional participants are like this. They only care about the deal, not the context. As Gordon Bethune famously said, “you’re only as smart as your dumbest competitor.” This is a disease in the world of real estate, and I so very wish it would just go away. But perhaps it’s not sophistication or intelligence, perhaps it’s desire. Does the market care to understand what is a transactional scalp and what is repeatable value? I can’t tell, but I’m here to remind you that I care about the difference.
Today, the market remains incredibly quiet. There are some off market sales occurring, as you’re aware. Some of those sales are carried out with discretion, others are not. Today there are some sort-of-available lakefronts to consider, and I have one coming to market sometime next month that I’ll share with you publicly when I can, but overall the mood at the lake is subdued. Buyers are disappointed in 2025. Sellers are thinking every one off sale that makes a headline means their property might be worth $INFINITY, and agents are trying to decide if they can find a buyer to buy for $INFINITY or if there’s a seller who wouldn’t sell for $5M in 2019, and then wouldn’t sell for $8M in 2023, and now won’t sell for $10M in 2025, but perhaps $INFINITY will drag them off the sidelines.
I think the fall market is going to continue on this path, which is good news for potential sellers and bad news for buyers. In a market light on inventory and full of buyers, the transactionally motivated are going to have their wins and there’s nothing we can do about it. With elevated equity and crypto markets, how can we expect anything different? Some deals are worth pursuing, others are not. Some deals are transactional in nature, others are not. You have a choice as to how you’d like to approach this market, and if you think a measured approach where not everything is a screaming deal and not every value is $INFINITY, then I’ll be here to help.