Blog : Vista Del Lago

Countdown
David Curry

Countdown

It’s spring break, and everyone is gone. To the mountains. To the beach. To a different place with its own brand of monotony. In the mountains, it’s snowing again. Powder Day, the flat-brimming locals shout. But it’s more of a lazy shout, if there is such a thing. On the beach, more shells. Here’s one that looks like my dog, says some old lady, as she tucks it into her sack full of other shells that also look like her dog. It’s another place this week for many, a break from the monotony of our early spring, to enjoy the monotony of another place.

But while everyone is playing and traveling, I know that there’s something serious on the horizon. Memorial Day Weekend. It’s nine weeks from this Friday. It’s not going to be a normal Friday, that’s for sure. It’ll be you, your office, your co-workers, and there will be a decidedly pronounced difference in attitudes on that day. Some will have an energy, a desire, optimism. Others will behave the same way they did the week before and the week before. For some, that Friday matters. For others, it means only the turning of a calendar, from one season to another, unofficially.

The decision whether or not that Friday matters is yours, and yours alone. The market today is humming with activity, and while I particularly enjoy the activity on the lakefront, each segment of our market is bustling. There is no segment left behind this spring, each price range and housing category finding buyers and fielding offers. You needn’t be robustly rich to enjoy a weekend at the lake. So long as a $90k condo in Geneva National is in your range, you’re in play.

There are pending sales throughout our market, no matter if it’s a $198k cottage in Country Club Estates, or a lakefront estate on the North Shore of Fontana for $7.395MM. The best news for our spring market is that inventory is increasing, albeit slowly. New inventory in any category is a positive, as this market features considerable in-trading amongst vacation home owners. A new lakefront for $3.5MM is good, because it very well may free up a new listing of a $700k cottage with a boatslip. That boat slip property will be great to list, because an owner of a condo at Vista Del Lago might be looking to switch over to a single family vacation home. Any inventory is good inventory, as it lubricates the gears that churn this market forward.

For now, you have a decision to make. If you’re sitting in your office thinking about summer, this is fine. But if those summer thoughts lead you only to a Saturday rooftop dinner and a Sunday morning brunch line, then you’re not thinking as clearly as I had hoped. Dream of summer. Dream of that Friday, nine weeks from this one, but make the decision to make this summer different. I’m here to help, if only you’ll let me.

Above, the divine porch at 434 Oakwood in Fontana. Just sold last week for $1,150,000.

Lake Geneva Lakefront Condominium 2018 Market Review
David Curry

Lake Geneva Lakefront Condominium 2018 Market Review

When we entered 2018, we knew we had some inventory problems. This was widespread throughout the vacation home market, from entry level cottages to lakefront estates. What we also knew was that buyers rarely find the patience to stand back and wait for the perfect piece of inventory, instead they tend to wait for a bit, and then default to the next best thing.  If you were looking for a lake access home with boat slip last year, you know how difficult the hunt was. The good news is that we can now test our theories: If  there weren’t ample offerings with slips, then the market should have shifted towards condominiums as buyers looked for similar attributes and price points in a different ownership model.

The good thing for 2018 is that our model held up. Low inventory in the single family lake access market propelled sales of lakefront condominiums to a multi-year high.  During 2018 we closed 15 total lakefront condominiums, up from 12 in 2017 and eight in 2016. If we look deeper into the trend, we know that buyers have shown an increased desire to be walking distance to downtown Lake Geneva. If they want a slip and want to be close to downtown and they have a typical condominium budget of less than $800k, then Vista Del Lago should have had a stellar year. Guess what? It did.

There were seven sales in Vista for 2018, priced from $355k to $580k.  I personally sold two four bedroom units (the largest in the complex) for $520k and $515k, respectively.   Those sales were off-market, as buyers looked for inventory that didn’t exist, and their smart agents contacted me to find out what might have been available privately (you should do the same). Vista has had some tumult over the past decade, but the best possible thing for any association that’s on the rebound is volume. Vista, congratulations on 2018.

Around the lake we had two sales at Geneva Towers, both lower priced sales sub-$400k. There were no sales at Somerset, Harbor Watch or East Bank, those three higher value condominiums on the eastern shore. Working around towards Williams Bay, Bay Colony closed two units at $565k and $530k, and there weren’t any sales at Bay Shore or Bay Colony South.  Fontana Shores, that brick condo north of Gordy’s, closed two units. A two bedroom for $494k and a one bedroom for $405k.  At the Fontana Club, over in Glenwood Springs, there were two sales, though the sales were of the same double unit. The combined unit (that I had sold previously) sold in early 2018 for $685k. Then the owners renovated it, and put it back for sale in the fall. It closed late in the year for $835k, likely representing a meaningful loss for the seller.

It’s fun when a market allows you to prove a theory, and in 2018, the mid-range vacation home market did just that.  Some buyers, if faced with a lack of inventory in their target segment, will reach up. That’s common here. In fact, I can’t tell you how many buyers I’ve worked with started with a a target of $500k and ended up spending $900k. Lake Geneva can do that to a person. But what’s more likely, is for a buyer to look around at his desired price range, and in the absence of inventory,  she’ll look away from single family homes and to the lakefront condominium. Prices have lagged in the lakefront condo market even as the single family homes have appreciated. That creates some value, and when you combine value with inventory, you have the makings of a terrific year.

 

Above, my amazing offering at Bay Colony, $799k

Vista Del Lago Sells
David Curry

Vista Del Lago Sells

After a market downturn occurs, we must set our aim towards the goal of complete and thorough recovery.  If that goal is to return a specific market segment to full health, then there are several steps that must be followed. There is no shortcut to this health, and you cannot out-volume a market issue any more effectively than I can out-lift my horrible, no good diet.  If the market was bad and we wish the market to be good, then the steps must be followed.

The first step is to weed out any weak hands. Financially troubled owners have a tendency to drag on a market, negating any market gains with the constant, worrisome threat of foreclosure. If volume is printing but prices are still falling, this is generally acceptable, and will, over some period of time, work out in favor of the ownership. But if there are pieces of weak ownership that have the ongoing possibility of some form of distressed sale, this creates market drag that volume alone cannot overcome. This scenario occurred in the South Shore Club in the early years of this current decade, and the only way the SSC moved forward was by eliminating those trouble spots, which unfortunately only occurs after an owner has lost their home to the bank.

With the weak spots identified and fixed, then we need volume. Plenty of volume. We need sales in all price sectors within that segment. Some prices will be low, and we cannot be too concerned about this. If an average price in the segment is $500k, and over a particular duration there are two sales around $400k for every sale around $500k, that’s not a big deal. It’ll feel awful, but remember, the goal is not immediate health but rather a path towards it. It’s painful to watch low sales print when you know they’re creating an issue for those who wish for higher sales, but  I never said this path was going to be fun.

With the weak owners flushed and the volume on the rise, the third step is bright spots of higher valuations. A sale here and there over the expected average of the segment. If we’re in this $500k range, then we’ll need to see some sales print higher- $525k, $550k. There will still be lower sales, sure, but the momentum is achieved by raising the expected ceiling.  Higher sales beget higher sales, and all it takes is one or two of these sales to move a market higher.

Step four is the strengthening of volume. We need more sales. More and more sales. New listings, shorter Days On Market. Movement, that’s what we need now. Liquidity is important to both establish the market pattern and introduce new, energized ownership to a segment. The reason new owners matter is because they tend to make improvements. Remodel the kitchen, update the bathrooms. New appliances, new tile, new paint. This shows a potential buyer that they’re surrounded by neighbors who value what it is that they own. Increased volume is vital to return a market to health.

The last step is a tightening of inventory.  True price gains cannot be realized if there is ample, sufficient inventory. We need limited inventory, tight conditions. We need buyers asking about product in that particular segment, be it a specific association, condominium, or price range. Without this last, crucial step, a market cannot return to full health. If you doubt these steps, consider each and every step has occurred in sequence within the South Shore Club over the past eight years. The good news for the local condominium market is that Vista Del Lago appears to be following the same, successful path.

Last week, I closed on another four bedroom unit at Vista Del Lago. I sold one in May for $520k, and I sold this recent one for $515k. Both sales represent meaningful volume for this association, and both sales prove that Vista is on the path towards full health. If you’re a condo buyer on Geneva, you generally have options with two bedrooms. Some association have three bedroom units, and some have four bedrooms. But the four bedroom condominiums tend to be pricey, located in higher-end associations like East Bank. Vista offers four bedroom units for $520k, and as long as families want a view of the lake, a slip, and a place to sleep, Vista will have a market.  Speaking of the market, there are only three available units at Vista this morning, and none of those are four bedroom units.  Vista isn’t yet finished with this plan, but as you can see, it’s well on its way.

Vista Del Lago Sells
David Curry

Vista Del Lago Sells

It isn’t easy being a large condo association. In fact, a seat on a board at such an association is the worse sort of punishment, the sort for which you volunteer. Geneva National knows this pain, and it knows it well. Large associations have different problems than do the small associations, owing mostly to the scale of it all. Lots of land, lots of amenities, lots of structures, and unfortunately, lots of owners. Vista Del Lago, the largest condominium association on the lake, knows these problems all too well.

There’s been a learning curve of sorts at Vista.  New ownership flooded in during the 2000s condo boom, and unlike the average of the previous ownership, these owners were more affluent and as a result, more demanding. Expectations soared, and along with it, the request for improvements. This should be better and so should that. New retaining walls here, new roofs there, new landscaping around the corner.  The property was old enough by then to need some serious attention, and as a new group of owners settled in, the attention was paid.

There were some management concerns, so management changed. There was some maintenance concerns, so maintenance changed. There were reasons to improve Vista, so the improvements were made. But that makes it sound like there wasn’t a struggle, because there was. Whenever a large group needs to make decisions in unison, there is a struggle. But today, the smoke is clearing and Vista, with those improvements made, has once again found favor in the market. It’s a good time to be at Vista Del Lago.

The market hasn’t fully recovered, mind you, but it’s finally gaining some ground. This week I closed on a sale of a four bedroom condo for $520,000.  Currently, there are two other units at Vista pending sale, with just two others active on the market. There was a time not too many years ago when it wasn’t uncommon to have six or more units available at the same time. These recent sales and this lack of inventory is just what the doctor ordered, assuming the doctor was ordering Vista Del Lago to return to form.

Today, there are only eight available lakefront condominiums on Geneva Lake. That’s a low total, to be certain.  The most amazing of them all? Obviously my Bay Colony unit in Williams Bay. First floor unit, boat slip, perfect lake views and a stunning interior. For real, stunning. You’ll be stunned. Actually.  I wouldn’t ever use that word out of context.  For now, let’s celebrate the Vista sale. It means a lot to the market, and I expect the lakefront condo market to continue its long recovery throughout the coming summer. If you’re looking for a ready-made lakefront experience and your budget doesn’t allow for single family, there’s no better way to indulge in the lakefront scene. If you’re wondering who to work with towards this end, email him here.

2017 Lakefront Condo Market Review
David Curry

2017 Lakefront Condo Market Review

By now, everyone knows the Stone Manor story. Not the Otto Young story, mind you, because he’s old news. The new news is the news we like, because we’re Americans. The news is, as you know, that a buyer has bought up Stone Manor, that famed limestone manse on our eastern shore. The building has been lots of things since it was first built some 120 years ago, but most of us know it either as an old French restaurant or as the condominiums that it has most recently been. Today, it’s still a  condominium, but not really. There are seven units in the building, and all but one are under the same ownership.  The volume created by those 2017 condo sales is not something we’ll count in our year end figures, because the sales were direct, and the circumstance obviously unique. Stone Manor, we hardly knew you.

Now that the Stone Manor bit is out of the way, let’s consider the real lakefront condo market.  That is, those two and three bedroom condominiums that measure between 1200 and 1500 square feet. Those are the meat and potatoes of this market, and really of every condo market everywhere. Vacation condos follow similar designs- two bedrooms, maybe three, a small kitchen and open living room. Maybe a balcony, or a deck, which are the same thing except one feels like it has to be made out of wood, the other out of stone, concrete or steel. Still, condominiums are similar here and they’re similar there, and in fact they’re similar everywhere.

Lake Geneva condominiums have, as you well know, been lagging the overall vacation home market. I’ve suggested many theories as to why this may be, but I admit I’m not particularly sold on any of them. The lakefront condo is simply not as prized as it once was. But that’s not to say it doesn’t matter. For 2017, we sold 12 lakefront condominiums ranging in price from $302,500 for a Geneva Towers two bedroom, to a four bedroom at Eastbank for $1,212,500. I should add that I blew that Eastbank sale by sending the prospective seller emails to the wrong email address. This is my shame. Of these 12 condominiums, I sold just one of them- the two bedroom at the Fontana Club that printed $390k.

The 12 sales are fine. There’s nothing fancy about these sales. But there’s nothing lacking, either. They’re just sales. The prices have stalled, this is undebatable. Consider the Fontana Club unit that I sold for $390k was originally sold (by this kid) for $393k back in 2001. I was so young then, so healthy, so full of optimism. So was the Fontana Club. Then, at the height of the condo market a mere five years later, this two bedroom unit was likely valued around $600k. Fast forward to December when the unit sold again for a price below that of its original sale in 2001. That’s awful, but it’s a sign of the times for the lakefront condo market.

In all, five units sold at Geneva Towers, one in the Old Boatyard Condominiums ($689k- behind Harbor Watch in Lake Geneva), one in Vista Del Lago ($350k), one in Fontana Shores ($510k), one in Fontana Club ($390k), and two in Bay Colony ($550k/$476k). That’s a fine sales tally, ahead of the eight sales of 2016, and ahead of the 2014 and 2015 totals as well, if only modestly so. And that brings us to the current state of the market, and what’s next.

Inventory is low in the lakefront condo complexes, and this is a good thing. While I worry that the single family market won’t have enough inventory to spur activity, I’d prefer to see limited inventory in the lakefront condo market. That’s because the prices have sagged, and the only way to pull those priced upward is to limit supply.  The best possible scenario for the lakefront condo market is that 2018 features a handful of sales- no need to match or beat the 2017 sales total. Sell a few condos, keep inventory scarce, and see if demand increases. If the $500k-1.5MM single family vacation home market stays light on inventory, this will likely drive some buyer traffic to the condo market. And if that condo market is even lighter on inventory, this very well may help increase valuations.  That’s exactly what I think will happen this year, and that’s exactly what the doctor ordered for our slowly improving lakefront condo market.

Above, my delightfully stylish lakefront condo at Bay Colony, listed for $899k.
Geneva Lakefront Condominium 2016 Review
David Curry

Geneva Lakefront Condominium 2016 Review

Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll discuss how 2016 treated the various segments of our vacation home market.  We know the year to have been a good one for these markets, but we’ll avoid the vagaries and dig into the details.  If you wanted vagaries, you could just visit the Facebook page of your favorite Realtor, assuming that I’m not your favorite Realtor, and if not, when what have I done to deserve such a low level of favor?   The markets we’ll cover will include the following segments:  Lakefront Condo, Lakefront Single Family, Lake Access Single Family, Geneva National, Abbey Springs, and the secondary condo markets comprised of Willabay Shores, Bayside Pointe, Abbey Hill and the Abbey Villas. Let’s get started.

The lakefront condo market has been covered in depth here. Unfortunately, even as I grasp the other markets with remarkable clarity, I have been routinely dumbfounded by the behavior of the lakefront condo market. I don’t know, exactly, why the market has stalled even while the adjacent markets have excelled.  I’ve speculated that perhaps it’s due to a shift in demographics. Younger buyers, more city buyers, those who don’t want to come to the lake to share a hallway.  Even today, eight years after the start of the last housing crisis, I’m not entirely sure why this market has failed to find favor.  With 2016 now closed out, it’s clear to me that the lakefront market has remained an enigma, and the market remains stalled.

Perhaps it’s inventory that creates the problem. After all, if nice things come to market they generally sell, whether they’re condominium or single family in nature.  I sold a beautiful condo at Eastbank for $1.2MM in 2015, but that condo was recently renovated and  absolutely, entirely turn key.  So is it purely a condition of the condition? If a unit is beautiful will it sell?  Does this buyer pool just detest the thought of renovating a confined space?  If we look to the 2016 condo sales, maybe there’s a clue.

In total, the lakefront condo market closed 8 units. That’s not terrific, but it’s not the worst thing, either. A unit at Vista Del Lago sold for $362,500. That’s troubling for Vista, as the development offered several nice units throughout 2016 and yet the only sale was in January of 2016, meaning that likely wasn’t even a 2016 contract, rather a carryover from 2015.  Geneva Towers had one sale at $644,500, a fine number for a reasonably decent condo there. Somerset, a small condo association just south of downtown Lake Geneva had two sales last year, one of a short sale for $725k (though I’m assuming the buyer had additional costs associated due to the way the MLS details are written), and another unit for $1,085,000. That was an upgraded unit, and any buyer considering entry level frontage would do well to consider available inventory at Somerset and at Eastbank.

Working West, Williams Bay had two lakefront condo sales, both at Bay Colony. One of a wonderfully renovated unit, one of a unit with more basic, older finishes. The upgraded unit had sold for $600k back in 2005 when it was in original condition. That buyer then renovated the unit and sold it, after years on market, for $510k in early 2015. That same unit sold for $525k in the fall of 2016 and that, in a nutshell, is the situation with most condos on Geneva Lake. Even in terrific condition they aren’t able to sell for their 2005 valuations. The other unit in that building sold for $415k to a buyer represented by yours truly.

In 2002 I sold a three bedroom condo in Fontana Shores for $427k. That was, at the time, a nice sale for the building and a nice sale for me. That same unit just sold in 2016 for $421,750.  The last owner kept that condo for 14 years and lost money on it. During the same period, a private lakefront home may have appreciated by as much as 50-75%. Lastly, my sale at Stone Manor. At $5,995,000, it was the most expensive condo sale in our market, and likely the most expensive condo sale in Wisconsin, ever. But it’s less condo and more residence, so I won’t dwell on it here. You know it sold. I know it sold. And that sale has no effect on the remainder of the non-Stone Manor condo market here.

12 months, 8 sales.  2015 fared only slightly better, with 9 prints for that year.  There were 11 sales in 2014. But none of this particularly matters. The take away is that the market remains in a difficult way, and I don’t see any catalyst that will change that. If entry level lakefront prices rise, and that entry level inventory remains low, then perhaps the condo market will benefit.  But what I think we’re seeing is a shift away from the condo model and towards single family, and the only thing that might interrupt that shift is rare value or rare inventory.   2016 should be a solid year for the lakefront condo market, but in this context I think sold would mean 7 or 8 sales in total. To expect more would be to expect a change from the status quo, and the condo market hasn’t proven it’s capable of anything but.

Geneva Lakefront Condo Update
David Curry

Geneva Lakefront Condo Update

The problem with market updates is that they require some movement in the market before they’ll really make sense. It’s like being a beat writer for a baseball team. If the team plays on a Monday and they lose, you write about the loss. The pitcher was terrible, the star outfielder always hits into double plays, and the fans were generally unhappy. You can say things like the crowd was unruly, or if they were so distraught that they were simply quiet and stunned, you can write that. Then, on a Tuesday the team wins. You can write about redemption, about the struggle of the star outfielder who finally found a gap, and about the pitcher who threw enough strikes, but not too many. The crowd roared and squealed, delighted by the victory. When the game was over and the players had left for the locker room, the crowd sang. It would be fun to be a beat writer for a baseball team.

But I’m not a beat writer for a baseball team, I’m just a beat writer for the Lake Geneva vacation home market. Sometimes, the market soars and we get to delight in that. I like writing about things that are happening, or will soon happen. For instance, my beautiful North Lakeshore estate property ($4.295MM) is selling this week. That’s terrific fun to write that statement. The South Shore Club home that I listed last week is under contract already, and that’s also nice.  But much of the time I’m expected to write about something that is happening, even when nothing is. Certain segments are active today- the lakefront especially so- but certain segments are absolutely terrible. And as long as we’re talking about terrible market segments, let’s spend a few minutes on the Lake Geneva lakefront condo segment.

I’m not going to beat a dead horse about how great the market used to be. I’m not going to slouch low in my chair and sigh just because I used to be the king of the lakefront condo, and now that title both doesn’t apply and wouldn’t mean anything even if it did.  No one would proclaim to be something that no other person would care about. If someone told me they were the king of lawn chair sitting near the basement entrance to their office, it wouldn’t bother me, but I would question their sanity. So I won’t be telling you about how great the market once was, nor will I be telling you that I was the king, nor will I tell you that I am the king. I’m just a kid who feels sorry for the lakefront condo market on Geneva Lake.

It isn’t that the market is terrible, because it isn’t. It’s just that the market isn’t as active as the similarly priced single family segments that surround it. The condo market has printed four lakefront sales this year. One at Vista Del Lago, one at Fontana Shores, one of a shore sale at Somerset, and one in Geneva Towers. Four sales isn’t horrible, but it certainly isn’t dynamic.  As the single family lake access market in the $300-$700k price range has thrived, the condo market has simply managed to tread water. Perhaps that’s as good as we can hope for, to maintain. Inventory is low, with just a handful of units available today. Some in the usual suspects- Bay Colony, Vista Del Lago, the Fontana Club, Geneva Towers, etc and etc. My fabulous unit at Stone Manor is still available, so if you’re in the market for unique and irreplaceable, I’m your guy. The king of Stone Manor maybe? Or certainly the king of Eastbank, but these are condominiums that play more like single family, and so the market senses that and responds with increased interest.

Perhaps the condo market is being mistreated. Perhaps all of this just isn’t fair. The lakefront condo does, after all, offer a buyer the best opportunity to be on the water, with a view and probably a boatslip, and from $400-$600k that’s something that a single family home cannot offer. Ease of ownership, ease of use, views and slips and no lawn to mow. It all seems quite perfect. But the market isn’t producing lakefront condo buyers like it used to, and until it does, we’ll lament the state of the market until the momentum changes and we can once again find cause to celebrate.