In a year full of market turmoil, foreclosures, and dwindling hopes of a volume recovery, anyone who stumbled upon Abbey Springs was in for a rude awakening. After suffering a historically putrid 2008, during which only 6 properties changed hands (all of these stats are per MLS), and enduring a painfully slow first quarter of 2009, buyers decided that Abbey Springs was worth their time. And money. For all the uncertainty surrounding real estate during 2009, Abbey Springs found a way to buck the local and national trend and record a recovery inducing 17 closed transactions. Two more properties have closed since the first of the year, so in effect, there were 19 sales during 2009. The statistics are impressive, particularly when viewed in light of the abysmal 2008 figures. Any individual market that can buck the trend of the larger market during a 12 month period must have something going for it.
I think the increase in activity was largely due to the fact that buyers sat on the sidelines during 2008 while they waited to see how the association upgrades were going to turn out. After a shaky first quarter of 2009, sales picked up as buyers returned to the scene and were obviously impressed with what they found. The improvements included a brand new outside pool, updated clubhouse, brand new grill room and golf course pro shop, and updates to the grounds, the lakefront, and the Yacht Club. It was a thorough renovation, and a much needed renovation given the age of the facilities. The monthly fees at Abbey Springs ($300ish to $600ish per month) are fairly high, but given the news that most of the condo’s on the beach in Marco come with $800+ monthly fees, Abbey Springs is downright affordable.
Abbey Springs, like Geneva National, is particularly attractive in this market given its wide array of properties. A buyer can find a $170k condo or a $600k condo, and everything between. Someone searching for resort style amenities, but not willing to give up single family ownership, can find private houses in the development priced from around $400k to over $1MM. Abbey Springs did give up a couple foreclosures in 2009, and I would expect that 2010 will produce another small handful, but given the robust size of the development, a couple foreclosures here and there won’t hurt the overall association. If you’re a buyer, and an REO in Abbey Springs sounds delicious, please email me so I can keep you in mind.
So what lies ahead for Abbey Springs in 2010? That’s a great question, and one that doesn’t have an easy answer. Like the other markets I’ve detailed, growth in Abbey Springs this year will be largely dependent upon inventory. Right now there are less than 20 units available in all of Abbey Springs, which is a ridiculously low figure given the nearly 600 units that exist there. With two sales already recorded during the first 12 days of 2010, the development is off to a great start. If inventory builds to around 30 units (which I expect it to by Memorial Day), and we have a handful of foreclosures that will ultimately sell quickly once brought to market, I can see a 2010 that looks very similar to 2009. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if 2010 volume totals fall short of the 2009 figures. 2009 Benefited from built up interest that culminated in a spate of closings during the year, while 2010 won’t have the same built up interest to benefit from.
Pricing will continue to be stable, though much of the existing inventory will need to be reduced in order to entice buyers. Prices in Abbey Springs have been more stable than other vacation markets here, but most condominiums remain roughly 10% to 15% off their previous market highs, and some single family homes have fallen by as much as 25%. I don’t see much of a pricing rebound this year, but that’s primarily due to the fact that price declines haven’t been as intense at Abbey Springs. Expect a great year for Abbey Springs this year, but probably not as good as it was last year.