No one in their right might would ever suggest that summer is nearly over on July 11th. But here I am, wondering about my mind, thinking that July 11th might as well be August 1st, which might as well be August 15th, which might as well be September 30th. The days are like that now. The months, too. I wonder if I’ll ever get to where I’m going, but increasingly I’m learning that I won’t. A point in time when summer feels like it did when I was 10? That endless time in the water and those afternoon naps in my still damp swimsuit with my window open and the fan blowing. Not likely. Even so, with most of the summer still ahead of us, we have enough data to look around and wonder: How’s the market?
Last night on one of the stupid real estate television shows that have destroyed the business of real estate (and likely led to the DOJ intervening in long accepted business practices), a particularly plasticized agent was showing an overpriced listing of hers. She said something like, “if this house were in this other municipality it would be worth so much more than this, which, in my California math, means this is a good deal”. It wasn’t exactly like that but it did pretend that if a particular property were in another town that it would be worth more, which made it a great deal in the town its in. This whataboutism is grotesque, but I’ve decided I might start using it so that I can more easily fit in with my real estate community. From now on, I’m going to price things on the lake as though they’re in London, which means if I want $1500 per square foot you’re lucky, because if it were in London I’d be asking $2500 per foot. Better hurry!
Anyway, the markets. They’re fine. There is fatigue present today that hasn’t been present in a long while, but it’s not the fatigue that should be at all worrisome. Fatigue is good. Fatigue in the face of continued limited inventory and stable pricing is actually great. The market needed to take a few breaths of clean Wisconsin air, and it’s doing just that. Volume continues to accumulate, and sales continue to happen. It’s just that the frantic pace of recent summers has calmed, and I, for one, am grateful.
Consider this morning there are only four lakefront homes available on Geneva. Priced from the low $5s to the upper $20s, there’s something for everything, or nothing for anyone, depending on your view of a glass that might be half full or otherwise. There’s a listing in the South Shore Club pending sale priced in the upper $4s, and rumors of another contract floating around the lake at the moment, but that’s about it. I’m working on three off-market lakefront situations right now, one of which that will come to market soon, but the others are likely to sell quietly without MLS involvement. There are seven lake access homes priced between $1.5M and $3M, none of which are pending sale. That’s an interesting data point to consider, as the absence of entry level frontage (that priced $3.7M or under) should have given a bump to the off-water lake access homes. Of note is one property in particular that I wrote offers on last year which is now available for a price lower than those offers. Oops. Price reductions are not uncommon, as I wrote about a few weeks ago. Crain’s Chicago Business later interviewed me for a story they were writing on the same topic, proving the trend is intact regionally not just locally.
I’ve been surprised to see strength in the lake access market priced around $1M this year. That market segment was tested with a rather meaningful influx of inventory but behaved like a champ and absorbed enough of that inventory that today we can declare that segment to be relatively strong. Of the 39 lake access homes with some variety of water rights to Geneva Lake, there are seven of those pending sale. That’s not a terrible ratio, but it’s not the best thing I’ve ever seen. The best thing I’ve ever seen is likely the way the lake lies flat on a sunny Tuesday afternoon something around the middle of September. When the sun hits your skin but doesn’t punish you, and the waves have smooth tops and the seagulls squawk in the distance but never try to steal your sandwich. That’s a pretty great thing to see, and it’s nothing like the lake access market today.
The lakefront condo market has been light on inventory all year, with a few sales here and there and a nice three bedroom condo in the mid $1Ms pending sale this morning. I have a really nice piece of fresh inventory coming to market tomorrow in this segment, so stay tuned for that. Hint: turn key in Bay Colony… The downtown Fontana project is selling reasonably well, though time will tell if the first half selling well is as important as the last half selling well. The Abbey Villas haven’t a single available condo as of this morning, which is pretty surprising.
But that’s the tone of the market this summer. Low inventory. Buyers present but not frantic. The market plodding along in a normal manner without too many highs or lows. This is how you’d draw up a post-covid market, and it’s a refreshing situation compared to the covid-boom markets that are falling apart due to rapidly rising inventory and a dearth of new buyers. You do run out of people fleeing their home towns, and if you’ve built a market that counts on a never-ending migration of new residents, you’re bound to face a reckoning. Sorry Cape Coral, Florida, these are the rules.
appreciate and understand the Cape Coral comment. as well as the per sq ft price for London… Just pick ups your house and move it to the best location