Geneva National is a dear friend of mine. I love her. She’s a beautiful gal, which is not to say she’s not a looking a little weary these days. She’s a good girl too, the sort of girl who loves Jesus and America too. She just can’t quite turn the corner, and I’m going to have to pull out the painful statistics to prove it to you. Geneva National is home to two of the top ranked golf courses in the entire State, a State that has a plethora of beautiful golf courses, no matter what Tim Allen says. The Player and Palmer courses both boast slope ratings in excess of 140, and provide some of the most scenic and pristine golf available in the entire country. Yes, I said country. And I meant it. Geneva National is far from a simple golf community, with three swimming pools, four tennis courts, four restaurants, and gated security, it’s just about the most complete association in Wisconsin. Yes, I said Wisconsin. No, I didn’t forget to add Southeastern.
The problem with GN is that it suffers a liquidity problem. It’s been suffering from that lack of liquidity for three years now, with YTD sales activity leveling off in 2007, and remaining spartan through 2009. With average year to date volume around 20 units over the past couple years, including 19 YTD sales in 2009, it’s easy to see that in a development as large as GN (1100+ units), those are far from solid statistics. Here’s some YTD sale information going back to the 2005 market high, according to our MLS.
2009 YTD 19 units
2008 YTD 21 units
2007 YTD 25 units
2006 YTD 45 units
2005 YTD 52 units
Quite a volume conundrum, eh? So what’s the problem? What on earth could be so wrong with Geneva National that the volume would shrink to a mere 36% of the 2005 market highs? The answer, unfortunately, is nothing. There’s nothing wrong with GN. In fact, there’s plenty right about GN, it’s just that buyers aren’t taking notice to the extent that they once were. Another issue is that we had such an influx of volume from 2003-2006, many of the buyers that were out there have already bought. We’ve run through the buyer pool that existed in the mid 2000’s, and we need some fresh blood. When you consider that for around $150k, you can get a two bedroom condo right on the golf course with two full baths, a fireplace, and golf course side patio, where on earth can you match that in the Lake Geneva area? Better yet, where can you match that in the entire vacation sphere of Chicagoland? You just can’t.
The single family home options in GN are amazing when compared in price and scale with some of the properties in Abbey Springs or even in the open market outside of a resort location. There are values in GN that are astounding, and yet buyers just aren’t paying attention. Maybe it’s the condo thing that I wrote about yesterday. Maybe the condominium just isn’t what it used to be. I do know this much, GN continues to develop at a pace that just isn’t sustainable. Some recent developments in GN that have vastly underperformed the market should be proof that the demand has slowed and the market just can’t keep absorbing new enclaves and new developments within GN at the current volume level.
While I do anticipate 2009 being a better year for GN than 2008, there’s still a long way to go. Prices have sagged considerably, but buyers and still showing they’ll pay for quality even if the price is a bit stiffer than they hoped it would be. Whether you’re a golfer or not, GN deserves a look. If you hate it, that’s fine, but this girl is a little too pretty to hate.