The only thing any of us know for sure about a bottom is that we’ll only know where it was long after it happened. As I write, the Dow is picking up steam, which is obviously a relative term given that we’re just trying to get back to our miserable October levels, but nonetheless, there are signs of momentum in the markets. Momentum that I would have thought would have been bolstered by the housing starts number released this week. The statistic that revealed 583,000 new starts in February alone. Consider that number. It’s a lot, and it’s the largest percentage increase since February of 1991. This huge number, signaling growth in the housing market elicited a big collective yawn from the market this morning. Ho hum. Largest increase in starts in 18 years, probably nothing. Right. There are some who question the figures and claim that the starts may just add inventory to the already bloated residential housing market. Does anyone really think any significant percentage of these starts are of the speculative variety? Wouldn’t you have to be out of your mind to break ground on a spec home in this market? So some are deriding this number, but to this Realtor, the starts are a good sign and I’ll take you one step further. Let’s get away from national statistics and consider some good old fashioned local economics.
I’m working on this Lake Geneva foreclosure that I bought two months ago, and depending on what time of day you ask me, it’s either going very well, or it‘s a complete failure. I’m either thinking I’m building equity and mastering the art of the renovation, or drowning under the weight of physical and financial constraints that are nearly breaking me. I can’t take it I’m telling you! But seriously, it’s a tough project, and my timeline combined with a Herculean work load is aging me considerably. You wouldn’t recognize this fancy jean wearing, fancy car driving pencil pushing salesman when I’m have covered in caulk and mastic and my fingers are bleeding from an unfortunate “pull toward” instead of “push away” utility knife incident today. So the remodel is a struggle, but what’s particularly surprising to me in this process is the lack of motivation or availability by the tradesmen that I need to help from time to time. The sky is falling! No one has work! We’re all going to die!
Oh yeah? Then why did my drywall guy cancel today and tell me he has too much work for the next 21 days to help me out? Why did my window company tell me they can’t make it out until next week to finish the job because they’re now “swamped”? Why did my granite company cancel my install and put me off a week because they’re so far behind? Why did the cable guy tell me today that he’s never been busier? See folks, much of this national recession frenzy is highly localized, and highly segmented. Realtors? Yes, not doing so well for the most part. School teachers? Still getting their salaries in spite of the soft economy. Mason’s (the mortar kind, not the secret society kind) might be slow, but your accountant is probably busier than ever as people seek to shield income from the taxing eyes of the Chairman Obama and Mr. Quinn.
I largely started this project of mine because I figured I could get some labor on the cheap. I’m almost done with the interior (pictures next week), and I’ll have completed the project without the help of “cheap” labor. Some tradesmen are busy, and granted, some are not. But the truth of the matter is that this recession of ours needs a little perspective, and we need to realize that the show does go on. Or in my case, the drywall must go up. Or in the nation’s case, 583,000 foundations must be dug.