Blog : Condominium

Market Update

Market Update

It’s April. That means the year is young, but it’s not exactly new anymore. The ice left us over the weekend, and now it’s just soft water and sunshine as far as the eye can see. But that’s not entirely true, because it’s time for those April showers, the kind that are supposed to bring May flowers, but instead, often, only bring angst. It’s the in-between, not winter but not yet spring, and summer? Not even close.

The market, man, the market. Just a few short months ago I was concerned about it. Because that’s what I do, I fret. I want to keep the market momentum moving forward, and if I was put in charge of this market, more so than I already am, I could keep it going for a long, long time. Like Bernanke or Yellen, I’d be able to give the market what it needs, and tell it what it wants to hear. Still, in early January I was concerned about 2019. Today, just three months later I’m still concerned, but the concern has shifted.

When the year was young, I worried that the December stock market melt would negatively impact our markets. I worried that the recent Federal tax reform would hurt our vacation home market. And before I knew the specifics of his asinine proposal, I worried that JB’s envy driven tax plan would hurt us. Hate the man who has more than you, that’s the way that pitch went, and I worried.

But then the market melted back up, and buyers showed no signs of letting up. Contracts flew. Even as this winter threw snow and sub-zero temperatures at us, contracts were written. Buyers, rather than being spooked by any sort of December equity selloff and the rhetoric of a populist governor, pushed forward with their goals. Those goals, by the way, are mostly singular: Enjoy life, while it’s still here to be enjoyed. And if that enjoyment hinges, as we know it does, on spending weekends in a different place where the beautiful people instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano, then so be it.

Today, I see nothing but activity. The market is strong in every aspect imaginable. The upper end of the lakefront flexing its muscles with the pending sale at 389 North Lakeshore Drive ($7.395M). The middle market showing strength with recent offers in the South Shore Club and elsewhere. The entry level lakefront remaining devoid of inventory, excepting my pending lakefront on Park Drive ($2.195M). But beyond the lakefront, the activity is even more significant.

Pending sales are everywhere, homes with slips, homes without slips. Lake access homes that might have been barely $400k a few years ago now pending over $600k. There is activity, ample, generous, sometimes confusing, activity. Abbey Springs is on fire, with 19 available homes and condominiums and at least nine of those under contract. At Abbey Hill, four available units and two of those are pending sale. In another big turn around, there is only one available unit at the Abbey Villas. If you look back several years, you’ll read me lamenting the state of the market there. Lament no longer.

The lakefront condo market is effectively locked down, with just three available condo units as of this morning. The best among those is my $799k Bay Colony listing, but you already knew that. The picture is above, in case you forgot how great it was. There are pending sales at Bay Colony and Vista Del Lago, and a recently closed condo at the Old Boatyard around $800k.

You can see, whatever worries I had in January have been eased with this wild dose of market activity. But don’t think I’m not without worry, because I’ll always find something to worry about. It’s called creative anxiety, in case you didn’t know. Now my worry is placed back on the side of inventory. If we don’t keep stoking this fire, it might burn itself out. The best medicine for our market now is a steady supply of inventory, and with the things I’m currently working on, I think we’re going to be able to feed that need as well. Which will force me to worry about other, more important things, like how on earth I’m going to lose 30 pounds before summer.

Bay Colony For Sale

Bay Colony For Sale

Back on the market just in time for whatever season we’re now calling April, a most memorable Bay Colony lakefront condominium…

There’s a thing about lakefront condominiums. The typical way to remodel these condos is, well, typical. Some new countertops. Paint. A backsplash of something from Home Depot. And this way of doing things is just fine. When people come to see the newly remodeled condo they’ll tell you it looks nice. Good job, they’ll say. But they won’t really mean it. They’ll wonder why you put new counters on old cabinets and painted the old doors. They’re still hollow, after all. White paint doesn’t change that. But they’ll tell you it’s nice and they’ll leave wondering if the lie was convincing.

At my newest lakefront listing in Bay Colony, there’s nothing to look at that isn’t new. There’s nothing that was missed. What started out as an intended surface renovation ended up including new everything. Everything? Everything. And instead of the typical wares you’re used to seeing in this segment, the owner decided to do the unit right. The floors are oak. The counters are quartz. The bathrooms are marble. There are custom built ins galore. There’s a new laundry room. There’s style here that is not just rare on this lake- before now it didn’t even exist.

Two bedrooms and two baths with a slip. Immediate outdoor access from both the parking side and the lakefront, making for no annoying hallway conversations. Is this unit simple? Yes. It’s simple. But in the simplicity is the value. I’m offering this unit today at $899k, fully renovated by Lowell Construction. Fully furnished. Fully ready to transform your weekends. If you’ve been in the market for a turn key lakefront residence but have been let down by your condominium options, come visit me at Bay Colony unit 101.  It’s stunning, and that’s not the slightest exaggeration.

Geneva National 2015 Market Review

Geneva National 2015 Market Review

In 1992, a small one bedroom condominium in Geneva National sold for $92,300. I imagine how happy the new owners were. They’d come up to golf and to swim, to tennis and to walk, to explore the area and when the day was done, return to their tidy little condominium.  It was a slice of heaven, I suppose. In 2005, that small condo sold for the second time, for $129,900. Seems a reasonable ransom for that little bit of Lake Geneva bliss. If you’re worried that you missed out on that deal, don’t worry, the same condo is available today for $69,900.

It’s not easy to offer a property in 2016 for 75% of what it sold for in 1992, but Geneva National can do it.  2015 was a most spectacular year for GN. 81 built homes and condominiums sold. Consider in 2014 only 44 sold. 2013 had 56 such sales. 2012 just 35. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to the peak market year of 2006 to find more annual sales (91). Geneva National found favor last year, and anyone wondering why need only consider the sad tale of that one bedroom condo. Prices are still down, values are still obvious, and as a result, the liquidity is profound.

I’ve written often about Geneva National. Indeed such a large development in such a small overall market deserves considerable coverage. It’s no secret that I really like Geneva National. I like like it. It’s a terrific development, and as a guy who generally despises development Geneva National is an exception. It’s a fantastic development and our market needs it to bridge the gap between lake access homes on and near Geneva and everything else. The only problem with Geneva National is that it’s too big. It requires too many buyers annually to keep it moving forward, which is why it stalls when things in the market go sideways for a while. But its size isn’t its fault, it’s the fault of the developer who saw only dollar signs when he should have been contemplating the long term ramifications of such a large development. Perhaps a certain Geneva, Illinois developer should learn from Anvan’s mistake?

Value today is apparent in GN. There are deals, and there is value, and in that, Geneva National should continue to capture the attention it deserves. I sold two properties  in GN last year, and I have a terrific townhouse pending sale right now.  The sort of condo that you can buy in Geneva National for $200k doesn’t exist in Abbey Springs even up to $400k. If you want to affordably hang your hat and have a quiet launching point for a Lake Geneva weekend, is there anything better than Geneva National?

While the 2015 volume was comprised of plenty of smaller condo deals, it was nice to see some higher value properties print as well. There were 7 MLS sales over $500k, which is a positive for GN.  When I built my home in GN in the mid 2000s, I figured the primary market would take to GN and drive up prices as my generation sought to upgrade and improve their housing situation. I was wrong, of course, but Geneva National should be on the radar of any primary home buyer seeking a Walworth County residence in excess of $450k.  Additionally, a vacation home buyer seeking a $500k vacation home should generally try to be as close to Geneva Lake as possible. If that sort of cottage isn’t  desirable, then a GN home should at least garner a look.

Inventory in GN has dropped, with just 62 homes and condominiums for sale as of this morning. That’s way down from the traditional inventory levels that hover over 100, and I expect this will help GN in the first quarter. The properties that are for sale largely represent value, and low interest rates should help fuel some solid spring sales. I’m not sure how GN will fare over the course of 2016 if this stock market blip turns into a real slide, but I would expect a drop in volume from that most excellent 2015. A return to normalcy would be good for GN, so if the association can print 50-60 sales I would think that to be a fantastic year.