Once upon a time in Lake Geneva, I had a call from an owner in Vista Del Lago. This was around the time when I was selling lakefront condominiums at a reasonable clip, so the call wasn’t necessarily unique or surprising. The owner had previously had their unit listed for sale with another agent, but had grown tired of lengthy days on market and wished to find some new angle that might increase their odds of a sale. I was that new angle, and even though my angle wasn’t unique, nor was it particularly effective, I was up to bat. I spoke with this new customer on the telephone and he decided to list the condo with me. I was happy to have the business, but the market was soft and the condos weren’t selling well, so how happy could I really have been? A few days later I had this new listing on the market and received a call from the lady agent who had previously represented the seller. The agent was generally prickly, but we had done a few deals here and there and nothing was amiss. This call was different. It was angry. Huffy. Mean. This agent had always been a supporter of mine, she said, but never again. We were enemies all because I dared take a call from a prospective client and agreed to list their little condominium. I tell you this so you know that the business of real estate is a pretty terrible business because not only did I get yelled at by an old agent, I didn’t even sell the condo during my listing because, as hard as this is to imagine, there was a time when condos on the lake often didn’t sell.
For the year just ended the market closed just six true lakefront condominiums. Units traded at Vista Del Lago (2), Bay Colony South (2), and Geneva Towers (2). I do not consider Abbey Villas to be lakefront condominiums, nor do I consider any condotel properties to be lakefront condominiums. The year prior saw only two lakefront condos close, and that had me wondering a bit about production over the long term. Consider 2022 closed 10 lakefront condos, while there were 17 in 2021. If you look all the way back to 2006, back when Dave Curry would have been traipsing around Vista Del Lago getting yelled at by old agents, there were just nine sales. Maybe six sales isn’t so bad, after all.
I overheard a person talking about real estate values the other day. He said something to the tune of, “once rates drop and inventory increases real estate is going to get crushed”. Interesting thought, guy. Let’s apply that overheard knowledge to the lakefront condo market. In 2006, we had nine sales. In 2023, we had two. Last year we had six. If we pulled the data from the last 20 years we’d see sales totals in this spread, which begs the question- how will prices change dramatically if inventory increases? We sold 300% more lakefront condominiums in 2024 as compared to 2023, yet prices were stable or higher. Wouldn’t that not be the case if our random friend’s commentary was accurate?
The condo market on the lake, while certainly sensitive to competing inventory, is most closely tied to the single family lakefront market. If a basic cottage on the lake is $3-3.5M, the lakefront condo market is going to continue to be just fine. Why wouldn’t a three bedroom lakefront condo be able to sell for $1.4M if a three bedroom lakefront home sells for $3.4M? If you want to know what’s going to happen to the lakefront condo market in 2025, just look to the entry level single family lakefront homes. Everything else is just noise.
Above, Bay Colony South.