As the lakefront market soars into November, the entry level lake access market is, at best, grounded. At worst it’s moving slowly in reverse, but likely it is stalled, neither moving forward nor back. The market that is the most approachable in our vacation home segment has recently been the most slow, and this bothers me. The good news for this market as we look forward is that interest rates remain tragically low, and the inexplicable stock market run of the last month should help ease the pain that the market swoon inflicted. Inventory is prime, rates are low, portfolios should be normalized, and yet, for all the kindling and paper we’ve been stuffing under that dry stack of wood, we can’t get so much as a spark.
The inventory under $500k is ample. Those homes that are listed above, but may sell beneath that threshold number many more. If the inventory were light, or unremarkable, I would understand the soft nature of the market. But today, as I scan the MLS, I see opportunity. I see opportunity in list prices and I see opportunity in the ultimate sales prices. Some properties, like one on Lower Loch Vista, are begging to be stolen. Others, like my Summer Haven listing, have been reduced $200k and will obviously represent value when they finally do sell.
If the market remains slow through this next month and into December, and the inventory that you’ve been watching is still available, then December looks to me not like snow or like twinkling lights, but it looks like a real estate massacre. There are deals waiting now, and those deals will be better when November is old. Seller apathy is a buyers best friend, and no seller is more apathetic than one who has conceded that his or her property won’t sell until spring. This, as you might have guessed, is a prime set up for a buyer not only in terms of price but when the deal is viewed in a calendar sense, it gets even better.
To close on a property in July is fun. You can close on Friday and swim on Saturday and all will be well. But to close in December, or January, while somewhat less climactic, allows one to ease into vacation home ownership. There is time to get into the ritual in winter. To arrive at a newly acquired vacation home on Friday night and stoke a fire. To run to the grocery store and find sustenance. To settle in for a cold Friday night and wake on Saturday with a list of things to do or places to explore. A taste test of breakfast joints and a sampling of dinner fare. Winter lets one finely hone their vacation home schedule to such a degree that when summer finely comes there is no mystery, there is only perfectly executed vacation home bliss.
This assumes that the home you’re buying doesn’t need renovations or alterations. If the home in your budget is an entry level property around Geneva, chances are it will indeed need some freshening up. Who wants to renovate a lake home in July? Tell me, who? Anyone? Certainly not me, and probably not you. January is perfect for renovating. For painting and for decorating and for replacing that God awful carpeting with pleasing hardwood. There are opportunities in winter that should be avoided in the summer, and the time to purchase in order to afford time for those winter endeavors is right about now.
When I look through the market this morning, I see plenty of solid inventory. I see two listings I like in the Loch Vista Club ($299k and $449k), I see one in Oakwood Estates ($269k) and the aforementioned lake view home in Summer Haven ($349k). There are three listings in this sub-$500k range that have transferable slips, those being in Glenwood Springs and two in Wooddale. One home with a one time transferable slip is pending sale right now in Indian Hills ($449k), and it’s the only pending sale in this entry level bracket per the MLS. The problem with one time transfers is just as you imagined. Buy the house with a slip, sell it without one. Not a problem if you’re thinking long term, but if you buy now and sell in five years? Probably something to be avoided.
Look for opportunity now, with me of course, and we’ll pounce in late November. We’ll rip em, and we’ll tear em, and when we’re done, we’ll ring that bell like we’ve always wanted to. See you at the lake.