The DNC propaganda machine known as Yahoo! News has provided me with a bit of a lift this morning. An article titled “From Hamptons to Tahoe, Summer Home Sales Edge Up” essentially says what the title already told you. Summer home sales are up, even if they’re not lighting the world on fire. I read the article, and with only a brief pause while I contemplated quitting after reading about some lady in Beverly Hills who sold $37 million dollars worth of property in a week (takes me 6 or more years…), I found that I agreed with much of the momentum that vacation home Realtors are reporting nationwide.
Being the sensible guy that I am, I had to research the numbers a bit to see if the momentum at Lake Geneva is simply perceived or if it’s real. The easiest way to judge the momentum, or lack thereof, in our market is to simply weigh the year to date sales totals of all single family homes with lake rights to Geneva. I like to analyze the market in smaller pieces, but for the sake of getting a feel for the broad vacation home market, the YTD totals will do a great job. From January 1st through May 12th, 2009 saw a total of 8 lake access and lakefront homes (3) sell (Geneva only here). Those numbers were miserable. Embarrassing really. During the same period in 2010 we’ve seen 16 such sales, including 4 lakefront properties. If I was the sort of guy who liked to sensationalize numbers, I’d declare the rebound in full swing and the bear market over. I’d swing open the shutters and let the light in, and we’d all sing and dance on brick lined streets. But, since I’m not that guy, I’ll put those numbers up against a little historical context.
The same 2008 YTD sales numbered 18, including 6 lakefronts. 2008 wasn’t a good year at all, but it’s obvious now as I look back that 2008 was better than both 2009 and 2010. The real hay day of our market was 2006, where the same YTD period registered 28 sales- 7 of which were lakefront. So even though 2010 is looking better than 2009, it’s still lagging far behind the market highs, which is to be expected. I doubt we’ll return to those volume market highs anytime soon, and to be honest, I don’t really care if we do. If we can sustain the sort of volume we’re on track for in 2010, and hold that volume steady for a couple years, I’ll be as happy as a lark.
The market continues to hold its own, but I still think sellers have to be a little more willing to engage buyers in order to keep this momentum moving forward. If sellers view this report and see it as a reason to stiffen up and embrace their high-priced resolve, that will be a mistake. Just as buyers take tidbits of negative information and use it as a justification for their negotiating stance, sellers will gladly do the same with any bit of positive information. In both cases, the result is gridlock, and that lack of willingness to compromise can kill a volume recovery faster than you can say 23.8% capital gains tax- but that’s another post.