The Lake Geneva vacation home market consists primarily of five key components. Those are, by measure of importance, Abbey Springs, Geneva National, lakefront condominiums, lake access homes, and finally, most importantly, the lakefront home itself. To weigh one individual component is important, but in a market that can run hot and cold on the same day, it’s difficult to measure the broad strength of an overall market by looking solely at the make up of the individual parts. That’s why we must take the temperature of the broad market once in a while, to see if the micro markets are all pulling their own weight. Today, it’s not about one segment, it’s about the whole darn Lake Geneva vacation home market. So how’s the market?
Since we’re past the malaise of 08/09, we’re going to measure 2013 solely against 2012. This seems to be the best way to move forward with any recovery, by simply measuring the current year against the past year, to see if progress is being made in terms of volume. For the purposes of our recovery at Lake Geneva, I think steady volume is all that we need at this point. We’ve rebounded dramatically from the volume lows, so for me, for now, it’s good enough to keep treading water and let the current move us where it may.
So far this year there have been 9 lakefront and lake access sales on and around Geneva Lake. These sales are according to the MLS, and do not take into account properties that were improperly entered into the MLS, nor does it include private sales that might happen between friends or between neighbors- those sorts of sales where someone who doesn’t know value buys a property from someone else who generally doesn’t know value. The 9 lakefront and lake access sales YTD exceed the 8 YTD sales for 2012, but the real momentum in the market cannot be solely measured by the sales. The real market strength is apparent when you see that there are 13 lakefront and lake access sales pending sale today. Of those, I’m terribly pleased to have a hand in five of them. Of the 9 closings this year, five of those have been of lakefront properties, compared to just 3 lakefront sales by this time last year. Advantage 2013.
The lakefront condo market on Geneva hasn’t enjoyed a single sale yet this year, but there are two sales pending- one at Somerset and another at Vista Del Lago (trumpets and shouting!). Last year at this time there had been two lakefront condo sales, but both of those were in Geneva Towers and I vaccilate between accepting Geneva Towers into the lakefront condo category, so while those sales are good, and two sales is better than none, I’m going to call this one a push. Two sales at Geneva Towers and two pending sales outside of GT are a wash. Onward.
Abbey Springs has has just 1 sale YTD, which would normally be cause for concern except that this is Abbey Springs, and if you ever doubt it for a moment it’ll throw five fresh sales at you so fast it’ll make your head spin. Speaking of 5 sales, YTD 2012 had already matched that total, so there is a decided, significant advantage for 2012 here. If there were some overriding reason for this 2013 drought, I’d be sure to tell you, but there’s really nothing to this. Abbey Springs will find sales (one pending now), and when we talk about it next January there’s a very strong probability that the 2013 will have caught up to the 2012 numbers. Abbey Springs doesn’t take no for an answer, though today, they are clutching the short end of this stick.
By this time last year, I had two pending sales in Geneva National. This year, I have had no such GN production, or luck, whichever you’d prefer to call it. YTD 2012 sales totaled 5, while the 2013 YTD volume is already at 10, and counting, with an additional six properties pending sale today. Geneva National has had a very rocky, very dry road to hoe, but it is slowly working through the kinks of a very difficult downturn. Does the market somehow surge this year, a prediction that might have some relevance now that the 2013 numbers have doubled the 2012 numbers? Probably not. But this does represent good news for GN, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that the 2013 numbers will easily exceed the 2012 totals. Interest rates are slowly on the rise, and the expiration of ridiculously low rates will push many leveraged buyers to make their move this year. Geneva National should be a direct beneficiary of this.
The 2013 sales total 20. The 2012 sales total 20. The wildcard in this is the fact that 21 properties are pending sale today in this broad market. There were undoubtedly sales pending at this time last year as well, but I don’t recall there being quite this many. I see the spring market beginning in earnest, even as the temperatures hover closer to 20 than 50, and even as snow finds a way to insult us every few days, long after it has worn out its welcome. A break in the weather will help, the realization that these interest rates have an expiration date will help even more, and I’m a firm believer that 2013 will continue its torrid pace. The stock market is a key driver of this activity, so as long as DOW 14000 is the norm, sales at Lake Geneva will be as well.
Fontana photograph by Matt Mason Photography.