When the dust settled, and a long December lumbered towards an even longer January, what exactly the new year held for our Lake Geneva real estate market registered unknown. While we basked in the fading glow of a 2010 that was far better than even the most itchy optimist envisioned, the question of whether those embers had enough spark left to reignite into a vibrant 2011 market weighed heavily on my prodigious mind. I wondered if we’d be able to replace the ample inventory of buyers- buyers that appeared to be largely left over from the carnage of 2008 and 2009- with a new set of buyers who would be able to harness their motivation and act like the upperclassmen who had gone before. Would the market suffer from a lack of pent up demand, as the demand that had been building for the previous two years looked to be all but satisfied by year end. These were the questions, and only those who eternally proclaim markets on the rise would have accurately, if ignorantly, guessed the answer.
For all the questions, you had to wait but five short weeks for me to deliver you your answer. The market that I worried about in December and January, has continued the torrid pace that propelled the nearly complete and total volume recovery of our Lake Geneva vacation home market. There are buyers on the scene early this year, as they sniff and scratch their way to value in hopes of finding their own piece of deliverance from weekend boredom that is a vacation home at Lake Geneva. Markets that typically rest until the snow begins its painfully slow melt have heated up even in the face of an historical blizzard that blew even Jim Cantore’s weather loving mind. Buyers have been active, and active January and February buyers are an obvious healthy sign for a market that really makes hay in April and May.
This early burst of activity is a positive no matter how you slice it, unless you were to slice it and pull out the slice labeled “buyer” because then it’s not a positive. For the past three years, buyers were allowed to be lazy. Being ambivalent was almost the smart behavior to embrace. A market running sideways in between precipitous declines was probably best observed from the sidelines, and many buyers found comfort in the safety of their suburban couches. They’d wander around at the lake and bemoan prices, and then bemoan and blame when properties they thought they wanted had the gall to sell before they could gather their motivation and make a play, but they weren’t exactly engaged. This lethargic form of buyer was accepted in a market where activity came in fits and starts, and no forward momentum was sustained for more than a month here and a week there. But after a consistent 2010, and an early start to 2011, it seems as though many buyers would be well served to get off the couch, and get up to the lake. Or get out of my dreams and into my car. Whichever.
I realize I’m teetering on sounding like a ridiculous Realtor when I write a paragraph like that, well, if other Realtors could write like that, but there’s a considerable amount of truth in what I’m saying. What I’m not saying is that prices are going to increase. I’m also warning sellers against over confidence, as the buyers that are present are still looking for value, and they’re not interested in paying your 2006 price. If sellers view the steady improvement in volume as a boon for their actual sales price, then the momentum can be lost in an instant. If sellers negotiate as they should, the terrific news is that buyers appear primed to do their part to grease the skids of a steadily improving market. Sellers, this is a tremendous opportunity for you to price your property right and actually sell it, as simply pricing a property right in 2009 didn’t necessarily mean a sale would follow.
The stellar market that arrived in 2010 is bullying it’s way into 2011, and buyers who have the goal of finding a utopic Lake Geneva retreat shouldn’t wait until May to begin their search. The entry level lakefront market has solid opportunities, as does the mid-range of the lakefront market ($1.8MM to $2.5MM). The lakefront condo market is ripe with some attractive offerings, and if there’s a property out there now that looks good to you online, we should probably be looking at it in person. Unlike 2008 and 2009, if you wait on a property, there’s a good chance it’ll belong to someone else before you get off that couch. See you at the lake.