The lakefront market on Geneva is a strange creation. It is at once a whirlwind of activity, of showings and tours and offers and emails. It is a dizzying flurry, pronounced not only because of the season but certainly exaggerated on account of it. It is a furious rush, this pursuit of relaxation. The market is benevolent and cruel, wild and gentle, frustrating and satisfying, all at the same time depending on your aim. The market is irrational most times, rational select others. The market brings us new offerings and they sell, or they don’t, depending on which buyer defines value in whichever way.
The market is intense, but it is also a slow creature, churning and slogging through days and months and seasons, unaware and unconcerned about where it falls short. It brings us listings that should sell, and sometimes they do. It brings us listings that shouldn’t sell, and sometimes they do. It brings us miserable houses on miserable lots and it finds a miserable sort who thinks that misery is perfection. It brings us perfection and waives it in front of our noses until someone else buys it before we were ready. It does things sane and insane, it plays tricks cruel and clever, it is simple and complicated at once. This lakefront market is many things, but simple is not one of them.
There was a time when I made a fair living picking off entry level lakefront homes on behalf of opportunistic buyers. Many of these homes would trade in the $1.2-$1.4MM range, despite boasting prior, peak values in the $2MM+ category. These entry level homes were bargains, and buyers sought them out with what seemed mostly like ambivalence. Many of these buyers were buyers only because they saw opportunity, not because they saw themselves afloat a shiny boat or relaxing atop a white, wooden pier. They were seeking scalps first, and lifestyle adjustments second. Thankfully, I had a very shiny blade and was not squeamish about doing the necessary work.
Today, those entry level buyers are some of my happiest lakefront clients. They are happy to have secured value, yes, but they’re happy now because of that shiny boat and their white pier. They came to the game solely because they liked to win, and they stayed for the rest because they realized that it’s all rather fun. This sort of buyer is no longer able to be so easily entertained, as the entry level market has dried up in a serious, withering fashion. Entry level homes exist in this same price range, but today they are mostly entry level homes that were entry level homes that will likely always be entry level homes. There is little punching above ones weight in this entry level market, instead there is just a forced ransom to be a lakefront player, and that ransom has gone up.
While the market is exceedingly active, not all segments are being treated evenly. There is no better time to be a trophy hunting buyer, as inventory over $5MM has never been more ample or of a higher quality in my 18 years steering this ship. That the best two of those available giants are my listings should not come as a surprise to you, and if it does, then you haven’t exactly been paying attention. 88 North Lakeshore for $5.95MM is the best piece of land listed for sale on the lake, period. It might be the best piece of land to have been on the market in 10 years or more, excluding those estate sized properties that feel more institutional than residential. 1014 South Lakeshore for $7.95MM combines the rare elements of stellar house, stellar land, stellar lakefront, in a stellar location. That’s a home that will sell, and if I’m a high end, upper bracket buyer, I’m going to find myself at the doorstep of both of these homes, soonish.
The meat and potatoes of our market, those homes priced from $1.8MM to $3.5MM, those are the homes that the market wants to see more of. It isn’t that we don’t have ample inventory here, and it isn’t that several of these properties represent value, it’s just that the market isn’t overly excited with this lot. My modern listing on Valley View was priced over $4.1MM last year, and that’s down to $3.499MM now. It’s modern, it’s fun, and it’s in a great location. I’d take a look at it if I were you, but that’s because I enjoy looking at really cool lakefront homes. I understand if you don’t, not really.
The South Shore Club is absolutely hotter than a pistol at the moment. I just sold another lot, leaving only lot 32 available on the circle. I’d buy that if I were you, but I like upscale things in perfect settings, so maybe that’s just me. A private listing sold there last month for $3.1MM, and there’s a rumored offer that may already be a contract on the home listed for $3.799MM. That leaves only my listing on Forest Hill for $2.149MM (with elevator, in case you were wondering), and the spec home on the same road for $1.749MM. There’s just one home for sale on the circle, priced at $3.199MM. Expect the SSC to continue its rapid rebound, as buyers see value in the incomparable amenities and style of the Club.
There are contracts pending today, lots of them. There’s a contract on two lakefronts that I’m involved in- those at Southland for $2.475MM and Loramoor for $3.195MM. There’s a contract pending on a home on the South Shore near Trinke’s for $1.95MM, a small lakefront on Basswood, and the newly renovated home on Oak Birch listed around $2.2MM is pending as well. That home should help buyers and sellers alike understand what drives this market. Location, location, location is indeed a worthy real estate mantra, but only if you’re a purist. New buyers have replaced that boring, antiquated checklist with a new one: Shiny, New, Fancy.
What to expect moving forward? Expect more sales. Expect sellers who are over-confident today to become less so as we move through summer. Expect one or two of these high end listings to sell, and expect buyers to continue working overtime to make current inventory fit their needs. If you’re an entry level buyer, get motivated. If you’re another other sort of buyer, do the same. New inventory is met with all sorts of interest, so the time to initiate your lakefront hunt is not when a new property hits the market. By then, you’re already in the process of losing this game. Reach out to me today, tell me what you’re looking for and how much you want it to cost, that way, once that new inventory hits, we’ll be ready to pounce.