To describe something as being “back in the day” is to assign that something to a very vague time in the past. If my grandmother were to say that something was “back in the day”, which she wouldn’t, she would undoubtedly be talking about something that occurred in the 1930s. If I were to tell you about something that occurred back in the day, which I also probably wouldn’t, I would probably be talking about something in the early 1990s. If you followed back to the day I’d be describing you could set the scene more appropriately if you filled it with girls wearing huge bangs and even huger denim dresses, and if you were to paint all of the carpet forest green and put white Corian counter tops on most recently remodeled kitchens, then you’d be right there with me. I’d be the one with the braided belt on. But if you weren’t asking my grandma, and you weren’t asking me, and you were instead asking my son about something that was back in the day he’d probably tell you about something that happened yesterday. Back in the day is like that. Always relative, always vague, and generally, always better than the present. Back in the day is a great place to dwell, which is why most people pick a day somewhere in the past and drop anchor, content to live out the present as thought it were indeed that special, memorable, yet vague day when everything was better and everyone was cooler, thinner, and sweeter.
But if you weren’t asking me, or my grandma, or Thomas, and you were asking Abbey Ridge to tell you a story from back in the day, that day would most certainly be sometime during 2007, which was roughly the last time Abbey Ridge was hot, hot, hot. And Abbey Ridge would rather tell you about back in that day, when real estate values soared and quarterly appreciation of 5% or more was not uncommon. Abbey Ridge was the prom queen back then, with everyone calling, pleading, begging for a date. It was a magical time for Abbey Ridge, and if asked today to talk about itself, it would prefer to discuss what it was like back in the day, not today.
While Abbey Ridge shot to uncertain and improbable fame in the mid 2000s, the rest of the market gained at a slower rate. Lakefront condominiums, those with boatslips and views and direct water access were not in as short of supply as were the recently built Abbey Ridge units. With three floor plans that included a two bedrooms (first floor unit), a three bedroom (second floor unit), and the largest of the designs, a three bedroom townhouse unit (two floors), there was something for everyone, as long as you were seeking a condo without considerable lakeviews and without a boatslip. 2007 was the peak valuation year for Abbey Ridge, with a two bedroom lakeview unit selling for $510k (my listing) and a three bedroom townhouse selling for $590k. At the time, it appeared as though the sky was the limit.
Then 2008 came. And 2009 piled on. Then 2010. Now 2011. These years have been unkind to Abbey Ridge, and I can almost see Abbey Ridge in the corner of a dimly lit room, sitting, arms pulling knees tight to the chest, rocking slowly back and forth, with dirty clothes and a wild look in its eye, repeating a mantra, mumbling it really, about back in the day. Abbey Ridge has fallen perhaps 25-30%, and sellers are now engaged in a battle to see who is willing to sell for what, and when. The rest of 2011 will indicate just what Abbey Ridge will look like moving forward, so it’s best you pay attention in the upcoming months if Abbey Ridge is a concern of yours.
A three bedroom upper unit sold earlier this summer for $420k. That was a unit I had sold for $440k back in 2005, and for a seller to lose just 5% on a property purchased in 2005 and sold in 2011 is a feat in and of itself. Try doing that in Cape Coral. There are six units available as of this morning, including one that I have listed. The sellers reflected in this group appear to be in various states of acceptance and/or denial. Some understand the slippery slope of a receding market, and are battling to stay relevant. Others are clinging to the false hope that somewhere, somehow, a buyer with his calculator watch still set to 2007 is going to show up and knock on their composite entry door. This phenomenon is why there are two different three bedroom townhouses listed with a price spread of $100k. There is value here when viewed in light of recent comps, but there are also properties that make little sense at current prices.
Will buyers show up to purchase one or more of these Abbey Ridge units before 2011 is out? I think so. One sale to one seller who admits relative defeat and takes an offered price does not create a trend, but if that number is below the 2005 value of that condo then we’ll certainly be on our way to setting a market. Abbey Ridge is a market searching for a bottom, and without a spate of sales occurring within a narrow time frame, that bottom will be awfully difficult to pinpoint. Buyer’s will continue to be attracted to Abbey Ridge, but sustained and consistent sales will only be found if prices fall in line with buyer’s expectations. Abbey Ridge is a terrific option if you’re looking for square footage and a convenient Fontana location, and prices should be primed to deliver value over the upcoming months.