Do people still golf? It seems to me that they do, even though I don’t. Previously, I enjoyed golf. I enjoyed getting to the course a bit early and hitting some range balls. I enjoyed a sandwich on the patio. I enjoyed the scramble for par, the thrill of a birdie. I once almost had a hole-in-one and that was almost super fun. But the game of golf no longer fits into my ideal day. I enjoy it still, if the course is green and the company prime, it’s a nice way to spend a morning, or an afternoon, or an entire day. But increasingly, my schedule doesn’t allow for a long round on the links, and when time does allow my distractions have taken other forms. Still, I used to like golf and I understand why other people still do. Geneva National has some incredible golf courses, but you needn’t love golf to consider ownership there.
This has come up often in my long history of Geneva National sales. New buyer asks for nice vacation condo at the lake. New buyer doesn’t want to spend lakefront money, and new buyer doesn’t want to buy one of our standard issue two or three bedroom, 1200-1500 square foot off-water condo units. I suggest Geneva National, knowing that there’s tremendous bang for the buck inside those gates. Buyer says she doesn’t golf. This is the Geneva National flaw, the common refrain, the reason some people dismiss this place without ever considering it. News Flash: You needn’t have a desire to golf in order to live in Geneva National. If you hate manicured lawns and rolling, forested terrain, then you should hate Geneva National. But if you like those things and you hate golf, then you should like GN. It’s really that simple.
Geneva National is huge. It’s a monstrosity in our small overall market. That size is what makes it so susceptible to momentum swings. Those market swings have occurred with some frequency since GN first bulldozed their first roadway sometime around 1990. The good news is that the last several years have featured a solid combination of strong sales and diminishing inventory, and that recent trend continued throughout 2017. For the year just ended, GN closed 84 single family and condominium units. More likely sold- private sales, direct from builder sales, and new construction. But the MLS number is 84. There were 71 sales in 2016 and 82 in 2015. The market strength today is obvious, and the trend supportive of a strong market. But GN isn’t without an issue.
The top end in Geneva National is remarkably weak. Consider in 2017 just two homes sold for more than $560k, and the top sale registered $750k. In 2016, there were four sales over $560k, and the top end printed $795k. 2015 closed six over $560k, with the top at $1.050MM. Now that you understand the pricing history, look to the active inventory. While there are just 43 active homes and condominiums (four more pending), there are five properties priced over $1MM. Given the last three years of history produced just one sale over the million dollar mark, Geneva National currently has 15 years of upper bracket inventory on its books. If I’m a seller in GN and I’m looking for a number north of one million dollars, I’m not pleased.
The issues that plague the housing stock in GN are varied, but all come down to dollars and cents. GN still has ample vacant parcel inventory. Currently, 44 vacant parcels are listed for sale. Many more exist off-market. Last year, 10 vacant lots sold. Of those 10, six sold for $13k or less. For all of 2016, the MLS registered two vacant lot sales in GN. Geneva National has lots of vacant inventory, and a housing stock that is aging. It might come as a surprise to some owners, but a house built 15 years ago needs to be remodeled already. A 20 year old house definitely needs to be remodeled. And sadly, your eight year old house likely needs some refreshing. The problem with existing inventory in GN is that it cannot compete with the availability of easily sourced vacant parcels. If you’re a buyer in GN seeking single family and you like a vacant lot listed at $50k, are you going to hire a builder to construct a $650k home for you (one where you get to pick the colors and materials and design), or are you going to go shopping for a 15 year old house that looks like it needs a new roof?
That’s why the single family market in GN is difficult and may remain difficult for a while. The association should do everything in its power to eliminate vacant inventory, and the easiest, most simple way to encourage that absorption is by allowing existing homes to buy vacant, neighboring parcels and be allowed to own those without incurring another monthly association fee. If the association enacted this policy, perhaps more vacant inventory would be removed from the market, and that would be the start of price appreciation for the single family homes. Until then, or until the market slowly absorbs this inventory, expect stagnation.
The condominium market in GN is much healthier at the moment, and I’d expect the low inventory to benefit this segment especially. If you’re a buyer looking to spend $150-350k on a vacation home in the Lake Geneva market, I cannot see a better option for large square footage at a discounted price. While the property feels like a country club, you can either enjoy it as such or just enjoy it for the natural beauty it so easily displays. Just remember, if you hate golf, Geneva National might be perfect for you.