When on a property tour with a buyer, whether the first time out or the fifth, I possess a relatively incredible ability to see the market through the eyes of my client. As I drive I talk, and I look, and when I look I see streets as they do, I see yards as they do, I see ridiculously horrible paint jobs as they do. I also see real estate signs as they do, and while out over recent weeks I’ve been increasingly pained by the perception that there is just oodles of inventory in the Lake Geneva market. It seems as though every street has something for sale, and most streets have nearly everything for sale. It seems, at times, as though it would be easier to point out the homes that aren’t for sale rather than focus on the multitude that are. I drive this way, signs. I turn that way, signs. Signs, signs, apparently everywhere there are signs.

But this is perception, and like a big, bold Chicago brokerage opening shop in Lake Geneva, perception is just, well, it’s just perception and perception is rarely reality. That’s why I know better than to be overwhelmed by inventory, because inventory here, as a point of fact, is actually rather low. Sales are up, remarkably so, and the inventory remains low. This is a positive sign for the market at large, but inventory troubles pressure individual market segments, and when inventory is light and sellers are convinced to sell, that means list prices are up. When list prices go up one of two things will happen. Either the market will agree that it’s reasonable to award a seller a premium, or the market will tighten up, and buyers will hold out against sellers, who are, by the mere implementation of their lofty prices, holding out against buyers. This is why markets either inch up slowly or seize up all together. In Lake Geneva today, we’re somewhere in between.

There were two vacation home closings this week. One in Glenwood Springs of a vinyl box that I sold once

The lakefront and lake access market has at least 13 single family homes pending sale this morning. That’s a lot of action, and the market should be rather proud of itself. While none of those initial 13 are on the lakefront, there are at least three lakefront homes that aren’t listed on the MLS pending sale. That bit of knowledge is key, as it should show buyers that if they’re working towards finding a lakefront home simply engaging any agent or signing up for some automated listings feed is not enough to keep you at pace with the truly motivated. Of course I’m implying that any lakefront buyer should be working with me, but that does make the assumption that every lakefront buyer is remarkably intelligent. This desire to find un-listed inventory is also what forces some buyers to go it alone, to resist hooking up with a qualified agent, because they think they’ll do better to proceed with their home search on their own. This behavior almost always leads to market mistakes, as private deals struck directly between a buyer and seller assume that both are completely plugged in to the current market conditions, which is rarely, if ever, true.

There are loads of entry level lake access homes pending sale, those in Country Club Estates and Cedar Point Park, and others. This market is understandably active, as buyers seek to capitalize on low interest rates. This capitalizing on low interest rates has been going on for several years now, and while there’s no way to really know when this zero (no) interest rate environment will go away, it’s safe to say we’re closer to its extinction now than we were a month ago. If you’re going to borrow money to pursue vacation home bliss, I’d encourage you to do so sooner rather than later. Price sensitive buyers (should be everyone, by the way) are also interest rate sensitive, which is why if forced to make a decision now I’d admittedly rather overpay by a percentage point or two rather than sign on to a 30 year note at a rate that’s a percentage or two higher. That’s just math, and it isn’t all that fuzzy.

The other pending homes feature a handful in the six hundreds, those of homes with boatslips, and then two other properties that deserve a bit of commentary. One pending sale is in the Lake Geneva Club, and that’s a home that has been for sale for the entirety of my adult life. That’s not fair, as it only seems as though it’s been for sale for that long. This humble ranch, a ways from the lake but not too far, has been listed at many different prices. It’s also been under contract a few times, or at least once. At $529k it offers a basic house in a basic location with a boatslip. That should be enough for the market, and finally it is. That property is pending, making it the only sale pending in the Lake Geneva Club. Long a favorite association of mine, the LGC has had a bit of a difficult time over recent years. There have been some sales, sure, but there has also been inventory that has gone completely and thoroughly stale. The Lake Geneva Club is a wonderful place, but with some slips being in poor locations it’s very important to be aware of slip location and water depth when contemplating the purchase of a home that includes a slip.

Speaking of bad slips, there’s a new listing or two in Shore Haven, as that association has rather elevated inventory at the moment as well. Even so, I like a few of those homes and expect them to sell as we head into the prime selling season. The other home that is of some interest to me is in Geneva Oaks. The home sold as an REO a year or so ago, and after some renovation it came back to market at $1.295MM. There’s a shared pier, which at this price range is okay. There’s also a lake view, so long as the house in front on the water decides to always remain a ranch. This flip will likely yield a decent return for the investor, as Lake Geneva buyers reinforce their very firm, principled stance. That house has shiny appliances and countertops and some flat screen televisions mounted at varying heights in several rooms? SOLD.

At first blush, it makes no sense. Why, after so many years of a predictable pattern, are homes in excess of $4MM selling so frequently and easily in 2015? The hedge funds had their huge year in 2011, making it reasonable to expect 2012 and 2013 to be high flying years. The same years, the stock market gained and gained, allowing those with large scale equity investments to cash a bit out and buy real estate, if they so properly desired. If this upper bracket buyer was sensitive to interest rates, they’ve had years and years of them. The catalysts have been in place for several years, so why 2015?

I think it’s private equity. You have Midwestern businesses of varying sizes and industries selling at premium prices. The simple logic goes like this. Mr. and Mrs. Businesspeople own a lake house. Because they’re successful in business and obviously intelligent, well rounded sorts, they own their lake house at Lake Geneva. Their lake house was bought when they ran that business, the one they spent so much time building. They bought that first house with revenue. Private equity found them, negotiated with them, and now our friendly business couple who already loves Lake Geneva just sold their business for many times earnings. They were rich before, revenue rich, but now they’re lump sum rich. Would it be strange to expect them to flip out of a $2MM lakefront and into a $5MM lakefront? Of course not. The lakefront market on Geneva has had a tremendous run at our upper range, and I say we owe it all to private equity.

You’ve likely noticed that I haven’t been writing market updates every day. I haven’t been doing this because the market is hot, and I grow tired of saying that. It’s hot! I say. Everyone else says it, too. They say it with fewer words, sometimes just breathless gestures, othertimes with pictures, but they’re all saying it. The market is hot, it’s active in all segments, and 2015 is shaping up to be a banner year. I think that would be boring to write about three days a week, so I sometimes choose to enlighten you with other meaningless tidbits.

The entry level lakefront has been offering up some tasty deals this year, and up until recently the market has mostly failed to take advantage of the ample inventory. This last week, two entry level homes have gone under contract. One near Abbey Springs, as in not sort of near, but right smack dab on top of it. Listed in the $1.1s, this home was cheap enough and a buyer finally looked past the oddly complicated approach. The other home was another that suffered through a slug of showings and a systematic chopping of the price. This Lake Geneva Highlands lakefront is now pending sale with an ask in the mid $1.3s. Think the market finally caught fire and gobbled these up because they feared they’d never find something quite so good? Think again. The prices came down, and buyers bit.

Other lakefronts under contract include a private listing in Geneva Bay Estates for $2.65MM, my listing on Bonnie Brae for $2.995MM, a lakefront lot in the Elgin Club ($1MM), a shingly thing in Cedar Point in the mid $2s, the bombed out cottage ($879k) shell near George Williams, an old house on the hill in Glenwood Springs in the high $1s, and the large Baywood Heights-ish ranch on Basswood just under $5MM. My listing in the South Shore Club is pending sale, as is the Pickell built home on the hill in Fontana. Expect sales of both within a few weeks. There is an offer on the large Fontana lakefront listed in the mid $4s, so let’s expect that contract is put together. That’s the sort of buyer that would have been better off looking seriously at 1014 South Lakeshore in the $7s, as the all in number for a land buyer in the $4s will likely far exceed $7.

The lake access market is active as well, with buyers reaching back towards off-water homes that lack slips in the $600k range. This isn’t a range I love, unless the house is somehow special. A boring house on a boring lot that lacks a view or a slip in the $500s? I’ll pass, thank you. For all the activity, I still see value in the sub $550k price range. There are some winning properties with slips that can be bought around $500k, and there are some reasonably nice lake access homes in the $300s that look interesting to me.

The lakefront condo market is just okay, with plenty of inventory and plenty of value offered. There’s a pending deal on another Geneva Towers unit, as the developer who wished to transform the condo market there has mostly, by my math, maybe broken even on the effort. Maybe he’s made a fortune, but it looks to this outside as an endeavor that maybe wasn’t worth the effort. Abbey Springs housing is hot, with three single family homes pending sale there priced over $550k, including my listing on Saint Andrews for $765k. Geneva National is similarly active, with loads of interest in the condominiums and single family homes. I have a deal pending on one of my Terrace Court condos, and another contract pending on the GN Saint Andrews.

What to expect this fall? The same. The market is active, deals are plentiful, and buyers have largely pushed aside any concerns over the stock market tumult. If buyers wish to make 2016 a lakeside year, then they’d be wise to begin the process now. Not in January, not in March, but now. Start the hunt. Identify the target. And most importantly, avoid disastrous decisions by letting me be your guide.

Above, my newest listing. An Eastbank townhome with 3300 square feet of brand new luxury. Four bedrooms, four baths, canopied slip, two car garage, la

I think it would be fun to write about baseball. Not baseball the game, but baseball the season, the team. To be a beat writer is to be faced with constant deadlines, but there is a new game to write about almost every day, so I don’t think content procurement is all that difficult. One game, your star right fielder will get hurt. You get to write about that. One day, your star left fielder will have the flu, and he’ll still get up to bat and then he’ll make important contact and drive in a run. You can email his high school coach to see if he ever played sick before. If he did, you can write about that and declare him a trooper, a selfless player, a stand up guy. Writing about all of that would be easy, because there is new content being created on the field every day and all you have to do is report what you see.

In real estate writing, there is new content every day, sure. But it’s mostly boring content. Someone bought this house. Big deal. Someone is selling that house. Yawn. Some Realtor just got a new car and another one took a new photo. Who cares? Collectively, these stories might add up to one measly 600 word post, but individually they require even more filler words that I’d normally use, just to make the post passable. That’s why I wait for some news to accumulate before pushing it out for the world to digest. Today, a compilation of events, and thankfully, none of them have to do with any new cars or new glamor shots.

The lake access and lakefront market on Geneva has grown quite interesting of late. There’s a general feeling of urgency, which is common in spring when colors start to reappear, and the lake turns from ice to water. That happened last Sunday, by the way, and that’s a date that I called nearly two weeks before. I called it on twitter, so if you’re on Facebook, where I’m not, then you missed the incredible clairvoyance of my prophecy. The lake is open, the grass is greening, the rains from last weekend permeating the soil that now needs only to be warmed to send up flowers and leaves and all sorts of cholophormy bits. Spring is upon us, and the market knows it. People are in a hurry, as they should be.

This urgency is widespread, and showings around the lake appear to be up in every single segment. Lakefront condominiums are active, lake access homes are, too. Lakefronts are always active, it seems. The lake access market has ample inventory, priced from $150k to $900k. There’s plenty of it to be had, so if you want a basic cottage for $225k or a nice home with a slip for $750k, we can fulfill whatever your present desire. The lakefront market is behaving a bit oddly, at least in terms of inventory. We’ve built masses of high end inventory, those homes priced over $4.5MM. There are eight homes priced over $4.5MM, and I hesitated before labeling them all homes, and not estates. What’s an estate? Well, it’s 2 acres, it’s 150 feet of frontage, and by that metric there are only three true estates available on Geneva. I’m bringing two more such properties to market in the coming days and weeks, and those will be true estates. Remember, calling a property an estate in an advertising description doesn’t make it so.

The entry level market on Geneva is starving for inventory. The only new entry level property to come to market this year is a small house in the Birches, and that is already under contract with an asking price of $1.499MM. Aside from that home, and removing a South Shore Club offering at $1.749MM, the cheapest lakefront is in Glenwood Springs, and we all know that Glenwood Springs is only lakefront inside of the market context, and not in actuality. The “cheapest” true lakefront home is listed at $1.875MM, and that’s next to a hotel, so you can imagine how impressed I am with that location. There was another time when the most economical lakefront home was priced around $1.9MM, and that was 2007.

We could use some quality lakefront inventory in the $2MM to $3.4MM range, as that’s the undeniable sweet spot for our lakefront market. My large listing on Loramoor priced at $3.195MM is under contract as of last week, so that makes me happy. Also pending is the large property on Southland for $2.475MM, also to a buyer of mine, so I’m still happy. There are offers circulating in the South Shore Club, and likely an offer or three circulating on the lakefront that I’m not involved in. That, it should be noted, makes me sad in a brooding, selfish way.

I’ve written loads of offers over recent weeks, and there’s a new theme in the market that I’m not thoroughly pleased with. Sellers are holding tighter to their list prices than they have at any point since the spring of 2009. Of the seven or eight offers I’ve written of late, only two have come together. If this were 2011, I would have likely put all of these written offers under contract, as sellers used to view buyers as treasured possessions, and now they view them as a rather un-rare commodity. This, of course, will come back to bite many over-confident sellers, as a buyer today does not guarantee a buyer tomorrow. I’m hearing reports of seller confidence increasing because of increased showings. I’d argue that increased showings and a lack of corresponding offers is actually a negative for any given property, making a singular written offer all that more valuable.

If you’re a buyer, expect two things. First, get ready for fresh sellers to be somewhat smug. They don’t want to negotiate like they used to, which is why the title of my someday book will be, “Sellers: I Only Loved Them In 2011”. If a buyer wants a real bargain, they must look to the aged inventory, as those are sellers who are generally tired of market times and of showing feedback reports, and those are the sellers that can still be massaged into signing onto an actual deal. New sellers, not so much. Second, unless you’re an upper bracket lakefront buyer, be prepared for somewhat limited inventory. I’m sure we’ll add some inventory as we creep towards summer, but it’s safe to say that any expected influx of inventory this spring has not happened, and likely won’t.

For now, the lake is open, and my boat is broken. I have work to do, and it involves some wrenches, a solenoid, and a complete lack of engine related intelligence. Above, a spectacular new lakefront coming to market next month.