Just as spring in our resort market is a time for building inventory and increased expectations, late fall is a time for shedding inventory and lowering expectations. As November fades to white, inventory is sure to adjust downward as sellers face unfortunate facts and realize there is little hope for a December sale. Many listing contracts will be expiring this month, and a large percentage of those contracts will not be renewed until the first week of February. If I am to assume that most other agents are going to follow in allowing properties to sit off market and idle for a spell, I’ll also assume inventory will be relatively bare by early December.
That isn’t to say that all properties will come off the market, nor does it even suggest that most properties will be removed from the active lists, but it does mean a significant number will. So, if we’re to assume you’re a buyer, which, if you read the first paragraph you’ll already know I’m a fan of assumption, does this mean you too should fold up shop and wait for the February market to start looking again? Um, no.
In fact, buyers should be doing exactly the opposite. The hunt should be on. Arrows sharpened, pens inked, printer stocked. The obvious quasi-secret is that most off-market properties are still indeed for sale. Just because a seller removes his or her property from the market between Thanksgiving and Super Bowl Sunday doesn’t mean that seller has given up the hope of selling, it just means that those selling desires have been forcibly shelved for the time being. A seller in this position is apathetic and disenchanted, and anyone who is disenchanted is primed to be impressed by something, by anything.
In spring, seller’s heads are full of optimism. Spring is coming, and with is, shiny new houses for everyone! Unicorns graze in fields of lollipops and when it rains, as it tends to do in spring, it rains not water but tiny little droplets of the softest, purest gold! These are sellers in the spring. Sunshine and roses abound. But a seller in November and into December is an unhappy seller. She is a sour seller. She is a seller ripe to be surprised by an offer that might be deemed unacceptable in June but considered in December. This isn’t a time for buyers to be shy, this is a time for buyers to be on the prowl.
Of course this proclamation of waiting value isn’t true in each case, as some sellers are steadfast be it January or July. These sellers are inflexible no matter the time of year, the weather, the stock market, or the political climate. These are sellers that are valuable to market stability as they hold firm and wait. Less a blanket statement and more a fortunate occurrence, late fall and early winter value does exist in abundance when viewed opposite the same value that might exist in early summer. As a buyer, you’d be keen to take note of this trend, and even keener to call me relatively soon. Email works too.
There are properties pending sale today, and others with active contracts being battered about. Some of the contracts written of late will represent extreme value once the final sales prices are known, and others recently closed (Maple Lane for $2.2MM) are recorded examples of sellers exhibiting classic late fall behavior. As with most things Lake Geneva, sellers should not be expected to display their motivation in their list price. Remember this. A seller who might be reticent to reduce his price is not always a seller who isn’t motivated to sell, that’s just a seller who doesn’t like the idea of negotiating against himself. When presented with a qualified offer, many sellers will behave in ways that even they didn’t know was possible.
I see value in several entry level lake access properties, including those in the Loch Vista Club ($299,900), Oakwood Estates ($269,900), Indian Hills ($247,500) and Summer Haven ($349k). I see other extreme value in the entry level lakefront market in properties located both in Cedar Point Park and Glenwood Springs. I believe the conditions are right for a seller or two in this segment to succumb to pricing that will surprise many market watchers and buyers alike. A buyer waiting for a seller to offer her property at a price that looks supremely attractive is a buyer who will be waiting and watching while someone else buys that very same home.
We’ll watch the inventory decline over the next few weeks, and we’ll watch some of these available bargains get snatched up by waiting buyers. There is a time to wait and a time to pounce, and if you’re of the mindset that value is value be it in December or August, then we should probably be working together. For now, a very heartfelt thank you to those who have served our country, those who have died for our country, and those who are currently serving our country. That I can sit here and write gibberish each morning is a gift made possible only by the tremendous sacrifice of others, and I am, and will always be, profoundly grateful.