The argument could be made that the Lake Geneva real estate recovery began during 2010. Those buyers who bought at that time did so with some fear, and plenty of reservations. Buyers were driven by the recognition of value, yes, but mostly by the state of their own personal economy. With most things tipped over or burning or both, 2010 was a difficult year for many. But if you were among those who didn’t fear, and most of your things were not on fire or already in ashes, then buying was a somewhat easy thing to do. Even so, buyers bought and the healing process began.
During that year, and the two that followed, the recovery was spotty at best. There were sales in most price segments, and in all segments of the vacation home market, but there was not blanket coverage of this recovery. Certain segments did well, others suffered. Lake access was strong in the entry level, but the mid market (between $450k and $750k) was slow. Lakefront seemed to do well in all price categories, as lakefront is want to do whenever it darn well feels like it. But the market was not healed with any consistency, and a few sales here and there didn’t give the market the sort of lasting momentum it needed.
Fast forward to Wednesday, July 17th. The recovery has ended, in the way that all recoveries must. This isn’t an indictment that says the market must now suffer again, rather it’s the opposite. The market has normalized. The recovery, in terms of digging out from the depths, has been a success. We are now in a normal market, with normal market behaviors, and sales that are expected and others that are not. If a property is listed on a Tuesday for the right price and in the right area, it isn’t a surprise to see that property sold within a few days or weeks. Interest rates are driving buyers, ample inventory is satisfying them, and the consensus that has spread through the every segment of the market is that things are no longer worsening or mending but instead things are just as they should be. Like George Strait said, it should just happen like this.
Today, there are sales pending in every segment of our vacation home market, sans one. The extreme upper reaches of our lakefront market, while rife with activity and even offers, still looks a bit quiet on the MLS. There isn’t anything pending sale over $2.1MM, per the MLS. I know of offers being circulated, but accepted contracts are very different from offers under negotiations. The rest of the market is full of activity, and as I said above, the activity is thorough and wide reaching. Entry level lake access sales are pending in Indian Hills, Summer Haven, Cedar Point Park, Knollwood and Country Club Estates. Mid level lake access sales are pending in Cedar Point Park, the Lake Geneva Club and Country Club Estates. A mid-level lake access home in Indian Hills just closed last week for $525k- a price $16k more than the original asking price.
The lakefront has sales pending for $1.25MM and $2.1MM, and I suspect there are offers either accepted or close to being accepted on properties. Abbey Springs has at least 6 sales pending at the moment, both condominiums and single family homes, including one pending sale of a property that was brought to market just a week ago. Geneva National has at least four properties pending, which is actually a disappointing tally. There should be more activity here, especially at the very low end and the top end of the markets. The condos here have gotten cheap, and if you’re a buyer looking for a sub-$200k vacation home in a resort like setting, there may be no better option than Geneva National. I expect now that foreclosures have slowed GN will continue to improve.
While the market is active on all fronts, one segment that refuses to open up to actual sales activity is the lakefront condominium market. There have been a few sales on the Abbey Harbor over the past year, but the true lakefront condo market remains in a deep freeze that is nothing short of frustrating. There are values waiting to be seized in this segment, but buyers look and rarely act. It is the single worst segment in our vacation home market this year. Offerings at Vista Del Lago and Bayshore have gotten downright cheap, and quality offerings abound in Fontana Shores, the Fontana Club, and Eastbank. The Eastbank condo is ready to sell right and includes four bedrooms, a two car attached garage, two levels of living space spanning nearly 3000 square feet, and a canopied boat slip. The ask is $799k, though my seller is looking for offers. I’m surprised by this lack of interest in the condo market, and I have to admit that I do not have a particularly convincing argument as to why the condo has fallen out of favor.
For now, rejoice in the activity. Buyers, you have competition. Sellers, you do too.