The way I see it, we might be in for a very schizophrenic market this year. I’m seeing more and more signs that the vacation home market is picking up here, but it’s not exactly a “rising tide lifts all ships” sort of movement. Our market here has some very distinct individual markets within the broader market that is loosely defined as the Lake Geneva vacation home market. I’ve already written about what I feel is going to be a difficult year for Abbey Springs, and the jury is still out as to whether Geneva National can find a way out of relative obscurity this year. The rest of the vacation home market is largely limited to lakefront condominiums on Geneva, lake access homes, and lakefront homes. For the sake of this post, I’m only going to look at the lake access homes and lakefront homes.
Even the lake access market is fairly segmented, with major price breaks occurring under $350k, under $500k, under $800k, and under $1.1MM. These off-water markets aren’t performing so well in 2010, even though there is more life in the market today than there was two months ago. I think that improved action is more a testament to the time of year than the strength of the market. The sub $350k market should be performing well, but it’s not. There are two properties pending sale in that individual market, but there are still some great values on the market that are not selling. Most notably, a property in Oakwood Estates that I think is a tremendous value in the low to mid $300k’s. I still think this market will see solid volume by the time the year is out, but that depends (obviously) on how the summer shakes out. Normally this market does quite well during the summer months.
The upper brackets of lake access homes are also stuck in a bit of a funk, with off- water homes in the $350k to $1.1MM range seeing moderate activity at best. There are some tremendous values in this price range, including a property that should have sold by now in the Harvard Club ($575k), and my lake access/lake view property in Cedar Point Park on Wilmette ($449k). Properties in the upper range of the lake access market aren’t selling well right now, and I’ve talked about how these higher priced properties $900k to $1.2MM need to drop in price to be more aligned with the newly established entry level lakefront market (around $1.1MM- depending on what Circle Parkway sells for).
I see a blinding bright spot right now in the lakefront market. While this market still lacks an abundance of quality inventory, I think we’re going to see a fantastic surge of lakefront sales in the next 90 days. With Memorial Day Weekend (yes I capitalized the entire title, because it’s the most important weekend of my year) kicking off a mere 10 weeks from today, I think much of the pent up demand for lakefront will work its way into the market before summer. I collaborated with another agent this week at a showing, and he agreed that there is a large amount of lakefront interest out there right now, and I’m going to go out on a limb and declare now that 2010 is going to be a banner year for lakefront. Bold, yes. Genius? Probably.
That declaration comes with one caveat- that we add some more quality inventory to the lakefront over the next 90 days. Much of the market has been picked over, and we just aren’t adding inventory like we need to. Even so, I think there are at least four properties on the market right now that are well priced, quality properties, and they’ll sell this spring. If we can get to a year end total of around 15-18 lakefront sales, it’ll be a remarkable year for the Geneva lakefront market. As you hopefully know by now, I love the lakefront market, and if you or anyone you know is contemplating a lakefront purchase, my children and their growling tummy’s hope you’ll email me.
All in all, I see a lopsided year shaping up, with some markets excelling and others dragging. If sellers get aggressive with their prices and buyers realize that in spite of some lofty list prices there are still deals begging to be cut, I think the next four months could be quite active. For those who find the motivation to seize these opportunities, I look forward to seeing you at the lake. One little thing though- if you see me on the boat, and it’s like Thursday at 1 pm, don’t tell anyone.