I have conflicted feelings about Lake Geneva vacation homes that are listed this time of year. Part of me thinks that listings in October are good for the market, as they provide increased inventory as we inch closer to the peak negotiating season (11/15 to 12/15). A reasonable person would also assume that properties being listed now are properties that are owned by sellers who really want to sell, which should make these late season listings easier to buy for less. After all, if you were coordinating a listing to hit the peak volume market you’d want to list it sometime in February, not October. Given this, it appears that properties listed now should be properties that sellers are willing to negotiate more sharply on given the time of year and the dangerous proximity to the unfortunate real estate nuclear winter that occurs from mid-December through the end of January here. By that way of thinking, these late season listings should be good for buyers, and what’s good for buyers is good for volume and what’s good for volume is good for the market. My intellect is confounding, I know.
Even though common sense and my keen real estate sensibilities tell me that these end of season listings are good for the market, I know better. The truth is that many of the listings that come to market this time of year are listed by sellers who don’t have much by way of expectations. They figure they’ll throw the bait out there in the hope that some hungry buyer finds it attractive, and if that does happen, they’ll sell. But if that doesn’t happen, they’ll wait. They’ll wait because they have low expectations as to the strength of the late-year market. Many times these are the sellers that will take their property off the market during the summer so that they can use the lake house (or condo) without the annoyances of weekend showings. They’ll enjoy during the summer, list in the fall, and have only a teaspoon full of hope that some buyer will actually arrive at their doorstep with a smile and a cashiers check. It is in this that a toxic mix of nonchalance and low expectations skew our inventory numbers as we inch closer to a winter that I pray never comes. Many times, properties are listed this time of year, but from a buyers standpoint, they really aren’t for sale.
The other side of the coin is the theory that sellers listing this time of year must really want to sell, because only a desperate fool would intentionally list a property at a time when buyers negotiating strength is at its annual peak. Again, for some select properties, an October listing will be executed by a motivated seller, and if the seller is indeed motivated to liquidate the property before winter, there are opportunities for buyers. This is, unfortunately, the exception not the rule. So what’s a buyer to do during this late season market at Lake Geneva? Look for properties that have had their list prices systematically reduced over the summer, and negotiate the heck out of those properties. Sellers that have shown themselves to be motivated in the summer will generally be even more motivated when staring at the reality of a market that effectively slows to a crawl by Thanksgiving.
This morning the MLS shows 142 listings with private lake rights or lake frontage on Geneva Lake. Prices span from $137,500 to nearly $8MM for this active inventory. It should be noted that several of the properties on this list do not have actual private lake access, instead they are just regular properties that are listed by brokers who are either too ignorant to know the difference, or who think they’re going to pull extra buyers to the property in question by advertising it in a way that is anything but truthful. It seems fair to me to say that if a broker doesn’t know the difference between lake access properties and non-lake access properties, you as a buyer probably shouldn’t be working with them. Of the 142 active properties (give or take), the cheapest lakefront is priced at $1.399MM. Testing my October listing theory, just four of the active properties have been listed this month. Of those four, I find none to be exciting or otherwise appealing.
If you’re watching the market for properties that have experienced severe price reductions of late, one to notice is my lakefront listing at 6 Upper Loch Vista in Williams Bay. This home was listed this year for $2.5MM (Overton?) and was then reduced to $1.9MM in September. Yesterday I reduced this property further, to $1.799MM, making it by far the most lakefront house for the money as of this morning. With 80+ feet of relatively level lakefront, and a spacious, quality built custom home set up for large scale lakeside entertaining, this truly is one of the better deals on the lakefront right now. Another property that I find captivating at the moment is the $1.1MM Congress Club listing. There is reason to believe this home should sell this month, but only if a buyer harnesses some motivation and a burning desire to own in the most idyllic lakefront association ever built here. Another listing that I’ve loved since my youth is the rambling ranch on Conference Point listed at $1.495MM. All three of these homes should be of interest to anyone with a budget that accommodates such a purchase.
October is a great month for market watching. The buying season will be underway once November rolls around, and for now, buyers would do well to identify properties they like, with the goal of making a run at those later this month or the next. Of course all that is said with the belief that most of the properties mentioned will still be listed later this fall, which may or may not be the case. Watch for more price reductions to hit the market this week, as sellers do their best to attract late season the only way they can.