I suppose I’m suffering from a case of missing perspective. Not life perspective, mind you, as I have two friends sick with cancer right now, so my life perspective appears to be soberingly fine. What I’m missing at the moment is market perspective. I’ve been watching this market, watching it intently and closely for just about 17 years. I’ve seen good times and bad (eat it, 2008), and I’ve seen my own market expectations change on what feels like a daily basis. Other things change less frequently than my market expectations, things like pants and socks and the position of the earth relative to the sun. This year, I’m struggling with the market. Is it healed, or just healing? Is everything right again, and are prices actually increasing, or is it just the hype that I’ve talked about recently bullying its way even into my conscience?
If you asked me this morning how the market is, I’d tell you with complete honesty that the market today feels less busy than the market did a month ago. That’s the truth, which is all you can expect to ever read here. I feel like there were more buyers circulating in March than there are today, and that’s just what it is. This feeling holds at least some weight, as the late May to mid-June swoon is owed, at least in part, to the rash of graduations and weddings that tend to occur right about now. Imagine the selfishness of these people who choose to graduate or marry, knowing full well that it might disrupt a bit of my prized showing activity at the lake!
This momentary lull is meaningful to me, as every day the market moves and twists and either continues its’ mend or slips into a temporary pause. These undulations are best smoothed over with a heavy trowel, and the only way I know how to work this bumpy mess into an organized pattern is to view sold comps from one year against another, and that’s what we must do today. The mood of the market changes often, but a look at comps will set us all straight, as sold statistics are able to be manipulated to show price gains or losses, but volume is indeed volume, and the measure of it is mostly infallible.
From the first day of 2013 through this day in June, we have had 33 lake access and lakefront sales surrounding Geneva. This is not taking into account the other segments of our Lake Geneva real estate market, those bits and pieces at Geneva National and Abbey Springs and the other condo developments that surround the lake without considerable proximity. The 33 sales include 8 lakefront sales, and this is our 2013, so far. We have 126 active lakefront and lake access homes on the MLS, and of these we have at least 6 lake access sales pending, and at least 3, but probably 4, lakefront homes pending sale. I can’t help but note that one of those pending sales on the lakefront in the low $3MM range, proves more about the market recovery than almost any other sale to date, but we’ll discuss that aspect only after that property closes. 2013, without any perspective, looks to be fine, but far from torrid.
During this same time of 2012, we had 19 lakefront and lake access sales, 6 of which were lakefront. If you’ll recall, 2012 didn’t heat up considerably until the second half of the year, for reasons that I cannot entirely understand. 2011 had 24 total sales YTD, and 2010 registered 20. No need to look back further, because the further we look back we risk catching a glimpse of 2008, and I prefer not to see anything from 2008 if I can help it. After reviewing these sales, there isn’t really much more to say. The 2013 market is better, and by quite a long ways. There are buyers out today, and I dare say there are more of them today than I can remember in my 17 years of sales. That said, there is caution. Real estate here remains a tricky game, with some pricing reminiscent of a sunny day in 2006 even while other prices continue to lag and even soften. The goal now is to hunt down those remaining deals, because they exist, but they are elusive, and slippery, and it’s best to approach them with caution, and gloves. And a hat. And maybe some eye protection.
Above, the pool at Bay Shore. $389k buys a new two bedroom listing I have there.