I’ve listed one of my great regrets as my unwillingness to play basketball in high school. As I move farther from this decision, the regret grows. Of all the things I have put off or not done, this is nearly paramount. If, for instance, I had aim to travel to Africa, where I might ride an elephant, this goal might be somewhat difficult to achieve, but it is still achievable. I can book a ticket on Air Africa, and I can book a tour on Elephant Riding Tours For Americans, and then, after some considerable expense and many vaccinations, I will have accomplished this goal. I cannot, however, go back and play basketball in high school. I can never feel the rush of a break away where I might try so desperately to time my dribble with my steps, and I can never know the joy of a dunk or the agony of the failed attempt. No matter what I do from this day forward, I cannot go back and capture that opportunity.
I was hyped at the time, as much as any high school of maybe 80 kids can hype anything, and the hype was my drug. I enjoyed the attention, I craved it. I loved playing against the basketball player types and defeating them. But I didn’t play because the fear of not living up to the hype was greater than my desire for accolades. I remember, a few years after my window had closed, playing basketball in some winter league against many of the kids that I used to play 21 against during our lunch hour. I was slower by then, clumsier than I remembered being. On one particular play, I was fouled. I proceeded to the free throw line, dribbled twice, bent my knees, and shot the free throw. It was short. Like two feet short. I had just thrown up an air-ball. Whispers ensued, and whether I actually heard it with my ears or just heard it in my head, someone said, “Dave Curry just air-balled that free throw”.
I made the next one, but the damage was done. The hype, that great hope that I lived with for many high school years, was rendered unwarranted. I wasn’t deserving. And that’s the danger of the hype- the inability to live up to it. In our markets today, there is plenty of hype. I fall victim to it at times, particularly if the hype is warranted. If I tell you that a new listing will sell quickly, and that, if you’re interested, you should proceed to its doors quickly, then this is me hyping a property. If that property sells quickly, I will be proven right, and if it fails to sell, I’ll have shot my own air ball perhaps 14 years after I shot that last one. The hype is a Realtor’s best friend, but shouldn’t it also be a Realtor’s worst enemy?
It should be, but it rarely is. If an agent screams about a property and waives their arms and tells you to BUY BUY BUY, that’s fine. But what happens when that property doesn’t sell, not quickly, or sort of quickly, or ever? Doesn’t this count as a strike against that person? It should, but too often consumers do not demand honesty with consistent accuracy. There is much hype today surrounding our real estate markets- much of it coming from Florida and California. Much of the upper bracket is a buzz with mass purchases from Larry Ellison and Ken Griffin and the like, but these real estate fantasies fail to take into account one major sticking point- the market is not rife with billionaires.
This hype, how can we tell if it’s legitimate, warranted, worthy of our consideration? I suppose we could just continue to speculate and point to the purchases of billionaires, and point to the influx of foreign buyers in markets like Manhattan, South Beach, Tahoe and Aspen, or we could actually, you know, check the market activity in our particular market. I know, I know, it seems like too much caution, to measure hype against facts, but how else can we really know if the hype is legit, or if the hype will some day show up and chuck up an awkward air-ball?
A quick scan of all segments of the Lake Geneva vacation home market will give us all the info we need, so here goes. Abbey Springs, per the MLS, has two units pending sale. The lakefront condo market on Geneva Lake has just one pending sale, that of a short sale at Somerset- a unit that has been under contract for quite some time. Geneva National has a bit more activity with 9 properties pending sale today. Not bad, by any stretch, but if Abbey Springs clanked off the rim with aggression, and the lakefront condo market just barely drew iron, then Geneva National had a near miss but didn’t qualify for the shooter’s roll. Hype Index: Marginally unwarranted.
The lake access market surrounding Geneva has five pending today, including one priced at $1.3MM that I wouldn’t have pictured selling in such short order (sold just a couple weeks after coming to market). In a segment with 75 or so active properties, I can’t imagine anyone proclaiming 5 of 75 to be a good percentage. The lakefront is doing much better, with three pending sales at the moment, though all three of those are of entry level properties priced under $1.4MM. There are many offers circulating, but those offers are facing headwinds as sellers bolster and buck and cling to their prices a bit tighter than they might have otherwise done. The market is improving and sellers know this, so they are looking to comps and are unwilling to bend below those suggested values. Can we blame them? No. Can we call the hype surrounding the lake access and lakefront market a pure, tickle the net swish? Unlikely.
If the markets are mending, which they most certainly are, this is a wonderful thing. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and waste too much breath hyping the next great thing. Chances are there will be at least a few air-balls thrown up in this very long process.