I’ve been pleasantly surprised this year by the strength of the lakefront condo market on Geneva. Condominiums are, in my opinion and in the opinion of banks and appraisers everywhere, more likely to experience foreclosure trouble given the added fixed monthly expense of the condominium fees. While one Bay Shore condominium narrowly escaped foreclosure last year, I can’t say that I’ve seen any other foreclosures yet affect the lakefront condo market. Not only that, but the market has held up quite well in terms of keeping inventory low (low inventory is bad for buyers, but good for sellers in that it helps prop prices up), and keeping prices higher than they realistically should be. As with most things, items that are good for sellers are usually not good for buyers. In this case, the high prices and low inventory afflicting the lakefront condo market isn’t a positive for buyers this year. To which you should say, “duh”.
In spite of the difficulties of the lakefront condo market in terms of sheer volume, things have picked up a bit as of late. Two lakefront condominiums are currently pending sale, one at Bay Shore in Williams Bay, the other at the lesser known Old Boatyard condominiums in Lake Geneva. Another offer is currently being negotiated on a condo in Fontana, and I’ll be sure to let you know if that offer comes together. Minus these two new possible sales, the lakefront condo market has only had one sale during all of 2010. That one sale was the unit I sold in June at Fontana Shores for $456k. The previous sale for a lakefront condo was also a unit that I sold at Fontana Shores for $455k in October of 2009. If we can get these two pending units closed, we’ll have a grand total of three. Three, which is two more than one, but equal to the total number of lakefront condominiums sold in 2009. Three is also two less than the five lakefront condos the market closed during 2008, and three is four less than the seven lakefront condominiums that closed during 2007. Something else to keep in mind- 2007 and 2008 weren’t exactly great years, so with only three sold YTD 2010, we’re far from catching up to previous market highs.
I’ve said it often this year, and in spite of the two new contracts, the lakefront condo market is still largely overpriced. There is no reason for it to be, aside from sellers unwillingness to see the market as it is and adjust to it. I also see a strange and unexpected pull back from the lakefront condo as buyers tend to increasingly favor lake access cottages and association homes over the similarly priced condos. Perhaps this disinterest in the lakefront condo is just a trend that will ultimately burn itself out. Perhaps it a result of the lake access market adjusting prices quicker than the lakefront condo market has. Whatever the case, Geneva will fair well as a result of the very low number of actual lakefront condominium units in existence. With just 16 lakefront condos on the market as of this morning, the low inventory totals will superficially support values until sellers decide that they actually do want to attract buyers and eventually sell. Oh, and to the Abbey Villa harbor front units- please stop calling me. Don’t text me. And don’t email me. You are not a lakefront condo complex, and no amount of begging will change that. Besides, you’re embarrassing yourself.
I’m not sure what to expect moving forward this year as it relates to the lakefront condo market. I’d like to think we’ll see two or three more sales before the year is up, and I think that estimate is probably going to prove to be accurate. If we can get to six sales for the year, we’ll be right in the middle of the 07/08 markets, and any increase over 2009 will prove to be a step in the right direction. As the guy that has sold more lakefront condominiums on Geneva than any other agent since 1999, I’d be happy to show you the ins and outs of the Geneva lakefront condo market in a way that no one else can. See you at the lake.