Abbey Springs Pricing Update

If you were just about to call me to buy a very expensive home in Abbey Springs, well, then, crud. I have some harsh words for Abbey Springs, and writing this feels very much like how I imagine my mother felt when she’d spank me and then mumble something about it hurting her more than it hurt me. In other words, this pains me to write, but not really.

Abbey Springs may be in for a rough year. After a blistering 2009, Abbey Springs turned the calendar to January 2010 with two deals already pending, leading almost everyone to believe the pace of 2009 was no fluke and that 2010 promised more of the same. Fast forward to the first of March, and there doesn’t appear to be a single unit pending in Abbey Springs (per MLS). Inventory has swelled from around a dozen properties in early January to 29 properties on the market today. I wrote earlier this year about what I saw as a troubling pricing trend, and rather than my trend identification radar being a bit off mark, it proved to be as finely tuned as advertised. The influx of 2010 inventory has largely come to the market at prices that are more reminiscent of 2007 than they are 2010, and that just might be a problem.

Last year, many Abbey Springs properties sold at buyer pleasing levels, even though several did sell for prices that would have been stiff even for 2007, successfully bucking the broader market trends. This year, it appears as though sellers are thoroughly convinced that the broader market softness isn’t able to extend past the front gates of Abbey Springs. I have a feeling they’re going to be wrong.

It’s not just me with this opinion it seems, as I would guess we’d have several properties under contract now if the recently added inventory had come on at prices more in touch with buyers and their hesitant ways. Abbey Springs is lucky to have 29 properties on the open market, as that inventory is of good quality and boasts plenty of options in each pricing segment of the market there. To be fair, some of the entry level properties in AS have dropped quite a bit in price and buyers aren’t exactly gnashing their teeth to buy those either, so the lack of activity may be more a symptom of time of year and buyer complacency than an indictment of the current pricing structure within Abbey Springs.

Even so, I think Abbey Spring has some adjusting to do- particularly in the upper reaches of the market there that includes properties priced between $500k and $1MM. Of course, in the very real Lake Geneva grudge match between affluent sellers and affluent buyers, more times than not volume will suffer long before sellers agree to reduce their asking prices. For buyers watching this spectacle with a wary eye or two, don’t lose hope. If you’ll remember a post I wrote last year about list prices in Lake Geneva and how they compare to sales prices, you’ll recall that even sellers who are unwilling to reduce their asking prices may actually negotiate deals that buyers will find acceptable. So even though asking prices may be higher than buyers would like, there’s a chance that final sales prices may be much more realistic.

I’ll be curious to see what happens in Abbey Springs over the next 75 days. By then we’ll be frolicking in mid-May, buyers who have bought will be gearing up for summer, and buyers who have not will be pouring more chlorine into their suburban pools, and maybe buying a new trampoline, and we’ll have a great idea as to how successful the spring selling season was. If prices sag at Abbey Springs as sellers attempt to attract buyers, and AS registers a few deals as a result, that will be a welcome development. If sellers remain resolute and price reductions don’t occur, it’ll be interesting to see what the result is. Will buyers negotiate deals and find actual sales prices are to their liking? Or will prices remain stiff, and will buyers remain aloof, allowing volume to complete dry up in Abbey Springs, even as March turns to April and April gives way to May? Only time will tell, but all signs point to a very intriguing spring at Abbey Springs.