I’m having a hard time typing this morning, given the red glare coming from my previously bluish state. As a side note- I am looking for a part time office assistance for next summer, so Mr. Feingold, if you’re reading this and you’re interested, please email me. Same goes for you Mr. Barrett. There’s a curious market condition in place at the moment that I can’t seem to make heads or tails of. Abbey Springs has enjoyed a very solid 2010, but the sales that were plentiful earlier this year have slowed considerably over the past two months. That wouldn’t normally be a big deal, nor would it merit discussion here. But what is interesting about the slow down at Abbey Springs is that it has occurred at a time when the broader Lake Geneva vacation home has experienced growth. So what’s eating Abbey Springs?
It’s not that Abbey Springs is gasping for air, and with only 21 available properties on the market there, it should be easy for this attractive development to hold its head above water and its prices stable over what promises to be a slow winter. Per the MLS, I can’t see any pending sales in the development at the moment, and over the past 60 days only two condo units have sold- both for around $170k. I’ve written how surprised I have been by Abbey Springs over the past three years. While the rest of the market has sputtered with more fits than starts, Abbey Springs has found a way to trudge through with most properties experiencing a mere 10-15% drop in value. Yet over the past several months, while the lake access market has regained some previously lost momentum, Abbey Springs is off in the corner, bored to tears. Geneva National is over there too, so perhaps they can play cards or something to pass the time.
I think I understand why Abbey Springs has slowed, and perhaps it should be obvious to me as it might already be to others. Abbey Springs prices have stalled a bit, and the market is expecting bigger discounts, and more seller motivation. As a wise new client of mine reminded me last week, the buyer is the market. The market doesn’t tell the buyer what to do, nor does the seller, rather the buyers actions and buying behavior makes up the entire market. If buyers don’t care enough about your house or unit to buy it, perhaps the price isn’t in line with their expectations. And before I get someone telling me that sellers don’t care what buyers think, remember for the sake of conversation I’m only counting “sellers” as people who actually want to “sell”. Novel idea, I know.
While the entry level lake access market priced up to $500k remains slow, the upper bracket lake access homes, those priced from $700k to $1MM has improved exponentially over the past several months. The interesting thing as it relates to Abbey Springs is that there are several fine homes in Abbey Springs in that upper tier price range, and yet they don’t seem to have benefited from this increase in upper bracket buyer traffic. I think it’s because buyers are looking for slips and proximity to the water, and unfortunately in the scheme of lake access homes, Abbey Springs possesses neither. Abbey Springs might be chock full of amenities, but there’s no home in the development where a buyer can slip on a pair of sandals and stroll to the lake in a minute or two. Slip on sandals and get on a golf cart and drive to the lake in a few or five minutes, yes. But a quick stroll to the lake, not so much.
I think Abbey Springs might be in for a slow go over the next several months, and my thinking goes that if buyers have largely ignored the development over the past couple months, there’s no reason that any condition will spur them to act over the upcoming months. That said, the timing is right for buyers to begin picking at some properties there, just as they should be picking at other properties in the Lake Geneva vacation home market. Perhaps there will be a few sales before the end of the year. Perhaps the low inventory will allow sellers to feel little pricing pressure and keep prices where they are. Perhaps all is well at Abbey Springs, in spite of MLS information that says otherwise. But perhaps the market has finally caught up with Abbey Springs.