2012 Geneva Lake Access Review

If you were to force me to pick my favorite lake access association, I would have to accept the punishment that my indecision would warrant. To pick a favorite association is to pick a favorite child, which is different from picking a favorite pet, because everyone can easily pick their favorite pet. I have a fish and a dog, and I much prefer the dog because the fish gets all huffy whenever I try to cuddle with it. See how easy that was for me? But unlike pets, associations are not so easily chosen. Personal preference reigns supreme when it comes to favorites here, and a favorite for one might not be a favorite for another, and that’s just fine by me.

During 2012, the Lake Geneva market saw at least 45 lake access non-lakefront, sales. There were others that I was aware of, including a private sale at the Congress Club, and a few private sales elsewhere, and there were likely a few sales that agents entered incorrectly into our MLS, but I cannot suffer those sorts of mistakes. There were other sales too, sales up on Kinzie and other sales on Snake, but those sold properties don’t actually have lake access even though the MLS descriptions claim that they do. Of the 45 real sales, prices ranged from just over $100k to just under $1MM, and in that range there is a thriving and diverse market.

For context, all you need to know is that during 2011 we had 45 lake access sales, and during 2010 we had 43. That’s consistency, and the joy of 2013 is that the tumult of 2009 is no longer relevant to our volume discussions. The market here was remarkably consistent over the recovery years, which are like the Wonder Years, but with far less introspection. The usual suspects saw sales last year, including Cedar Point Park, Country Club Estates, Indian Hills, Geneva Manor, Knollwood, Geneva Bay Estates, Harvard Club, Loch Vista Club, Oak Shores, Wooddale, and Oakwood Estates. I had six of these lake access sales to my personal credit, ranging in price from a $208k sale in Oakwood Estates to a $730k sale in Geneva Bay Estates.

Of the lake access sales, at least 7 were distressed in one manner or another. Excepting my Geneva Bay Estates short sale, most of, if not all of, the distressed sales were priced under $300k, which explains quite simply which vacation home ownership segment leaned the farthest out over their skis during the boom years (hint: It wasn’t the lakefront). Most unique of the statistics it that just one sale closed in Glenwood Springs. Glenwood Springs was incredibly hot during the peak of our market, and this last year even though inventory was on the table, there was just the one sale. Odd.

Other notable associations lacking even a single MLS sale include Buena Vista (though at least one transacted privately), Club Unique, and Summer Haven (again, one private sale here too). Club Unique and Buena Vista are historically low volume associations anyway, so there’s nothing surprising about the absence of sales. There were the other sales this year for very basic reasons. The market had solid, quality inventory available all year, the interest rates were low, the prices in the process of succumbing to reality, and the stock market indices suitable, or at least stable.

I needn’t climb too far out on a limb to tell you that I expect 2013 to be just like 2012, which was just like 2011 which had an uncanny resemblance to 2010. Volume should continue to churn, though I can’t see a scenario where there would be some sort of spike. Prices will stay soft, inventory fairly slight, and distressed sales still available. Expect foreclosures to continue here, as there’s little other recourse for a buyer who mortgaged up on a $400k purchase in 2006 when the house is now worth $270k and that pesky amortization hasn’t yet yielded any meaningful principal reduction. Foreclosures will continue to make there way to the market, but likely fewer in 2013 than we had in 2012.

So which association is my favorite? The answer is whichever one wants to give up the best deal to one of my clients.