Blog : September

Fall At The Lake

Fall At The Lake

Of the things we know to expect during an autumn here, 95 degree sunshine is not among them. The heat is rare, but in a summer devoid of any lasting heat, I don’t know how we could do anything but welcome this heat with open, sweaty arms. It’ll be cold soon, consistently cold, where the days that hit 60 will be the summery ones. We’ll delight in those days, saying they’re too warm to wear a sweater, and we’ll sweat just a bit and we’ll be happy. For now, the green is fading but the summer remains, which leaves us little choice but to hold onto it like grim death.

This is something we don’t expect, but there are now market things we should expect. If we don’t expect them, that’s because we’re working with the wrong Realtor, which isn’t so much my fault as it is yours. The things you should expect are both obvious and yet, many of them are contradictory. That’s Lake Geneva in a single sentence. It makes perfect sense as long as you understand that sometimes up is down and often down is up and expensive properties sell so long as they have a Wolf range or so long as you’re the buyer who just latched onto a Realtor that you met because that Realtor was working floor time at the office on a weekend.

Sellers. It’s September, and sellers who haven’t yet sold are a bit concerned. Some are, some aren’t, but the general theme amongst aged inventory is some cautious concern.  There are two things that must now happen. First, asking prices should soften. This is not going to be the case for all sellers, but for some, prices will adjust as sellers look toward the off season. Second, what off season? Our market will remain vibrant up through Thanksgiving and beyond, with just a seasonal adjustment being made for Holiday weeks when only the faithful few will be actively buying and selling. The key for sellers is to understand the market remains hot, and will remain so, no matter if our 90s fade to 50s. Lake Geneva is still king, and kings do not relinquish their crowns when the temperatures drop, they just wrap themselves in some fine custom garments.

Buyers.  There are lots of you out there, and lots of you are making terrible, terrible mistakes. I try to warn you, but some of you insist on waltzing into real estate offices and make the assumption that the warm body in front of you is going to be your best chance at securing lakefront, or lake access value. This is sadly not the case, but you keep doing it anyway. There’s a funny game we can play. It’s called look at properties that no one thought would sell for the prices they sold for, and often you can find the selling agent to be an agent that doesn’t routinely work the lakefront market. To be certain, all agents are not created equal, though agents love to attempt to punch above their weight in the lakefront market because the prize money is alluring. Agents who sell $205k ranches in Elkhorn are not the agents who routinely sell $3MM houses on Geneva Lake. I’m begging you to understand this.

But for buyers there are still deals to be had. There is aged inventory that has been fielding and rebuffing offers all year, and those properties might be open to negotiations.  My recent experience is that sellers are still far too confident. Solid offers are being declined, because there is too much optimism. Sellers don’t seem to understand that 9/10s of a bird in the hand is so much better than 10/10s of a bird in the bush. This is what the game has come down to- fractions of lofty valuations- and sellers are proving their lack of real estate prowess by routinely ignoring solid, market bids.

If we’re buyers, does this mean we give up and look to another lake that might more feature more motivated sellers? Just because it’s September does this mean we wear boots and jeans when it’s 95 and sunny?

Above, my Elgin Club lakefront, now $1.925MM. It is, in my infallible, expert opinion, the best lakefront on the market priced under $2.5MM.
Geneva Lakes Antique Boat Show

Geneva Lakes Antique Boat Show

The thing about September is that it can rain a lot. When it rains in September that’s not welcome, no matter who you are. Had I planted those new trees in my back yard I’d be happy for the rain. But I didn’t plant those new trees because I am waiting for October, for the month when the weather should be changing and with the change, rain. The farmers are happy for rain in June even when the lakeside revelers are unhappy with it. The corn needs rain, beans, too, and so the farmers wish for and the revelers wish against. In September, the farmers crave dry weather so their crops can be harvested, and the revelers crave those last few dry days of summer so that they might swim once more. Today it’s raining and yesterday it rained and this weekend it might rain. No matter, it’s boat show weekend and shows, as we know, must go on.

Here’s the thing about the Geneva Lakes Antique and Classic Boat Show: It’s something you should do, but it’s not something you’ll necessarily love doing. It’s a cool show because it’s here and we’re here and you’ll like the boats and the scene is fun, but it really is a show about old wood boats. I love old wood boats. I always have and I always will. But old wood boats are sort of like shoes. It’s neat to have a few pairs, but if you have 200 pairs and you look at them all at once they just start to look like a bunch of shoes. There are newer shoes that look like old shoes, and there are old shoes, and there will be some shoes that you’ve never seen before. But at the end of that day, and at the end of this weekend, these shoes are our boats, and our boats are your shoes.

That’s not to say this isn’t a good weekend to be at the lake, because every weekend is a good weekend to be at the lake, but it is to say I don’t want you coming to the boat show and expecting to be remarkably entertained. There will be some music, some food, lots of boats, and trinkets of boat-related interest offered for sale. Some old guy will sit by his boat, the one that you don’t care much for, and you’ll feel somewhat obliged to walk down his small pier wing and take a look at his boat. By then you’ll have already seen a hundred or so boats, but you won’t be able to ignore this man’s boat because you know he entered the boat in the show because he loves his boat. You feel like you should too, so walk down the pier and look at his boat and nod like you appreciate what it is that he has there. This is proper boat show etiquette.

I always feel sad for certain boats in the show, those boats that travel from Minnesota or Michigan or Iowa or Ohio to be here. Those boats spend their lives toiling in some dirty-water-lake in some other state and for just one weekend a year they get to ply our waters. They get to see how the other half lives, and for these boats this weekend is everything. They’ll arrive today and some tomorrow and they’ll push into our water and they’ll frolic for a few days. They’ll float and their hull will soak in the goodness that is Geneva Lake and then, without much ado, they’ll be dragged from the lake, kicking and screaming, snorting and huffing, and they’ll be towed, against their will, back to the lake from whence they came. It’s a good weekend for us, but a sad weekend for these out of state boats.

Come up this weekend, indulge the boats and the scene. If the weather cooperates it will be a perfect lakeside weekend. If the weather doesn’t cooperate, as the forecast threatens, it’ll still be a nice weekend. What would you be doing instead, hanging out at a mall or standing in line for brunch?  Hopefully I’ll see you at the lake this weekend.

Inventory Alert

Inventory Alert

What we need now is something to sell. We’ve sold it all. We had a basketful of things, some with deplorable structures, others with superlative structures, and then we’ve spent our summer working and we’ve sold them all. There’s nothing left in our basket. We wobbled for a bit in the spring, then we steadied ourselves, and now we’re standing here and it’s September and our basket is empty. The cycle is complete, the inventory spent, the basket nearly or fully empty. It’s September and it’s summer but we know it’s fall and we’re out of inventory and so we’re out of luck.

The lakefront market wants inventory. It wants it really, really bad. It wants nice 100′ lots around $2MM and it wants built homes on those lots around $4MM, and then it also wants estate type lots in the high $3s. This is what the market has wanted for quite some time, so these bits are not new nor are they exciting, even if they aren’t currently nestled inside of our basket.  But what’s rare now is that the market wants big inventory. It wants perfection and it’s ready and willing to pay for it. There was a time when if your $7MM house was beautiful and stunning, no one particularly cared. Oh, sure, your friends would comment about how terrific your house was, and your family would fawn and your neighbors would look towards your house with a jealous sneer, but when you came to market the buyers yawned. Sure, it’s a nice house, they’d say, but it doesn’t have a private elevator to the lower level craft room so what difference does it make? 

Buyers in that range have been, prior to this year, seeking perfection. On Geneva, we can offer you that perfection, but every piece of it will have some nuance that can be interpreted as a lack thereof. A beautiful home near a condominium complex. A huge lot with elevated frontage. Too many steps. Too level, too moist. The house, too white or too dark or too blue or not blue enough. Buyers will come to me with requests and a one million dollar budget, and then I’ll set their expectations towards compromise. Sadly, with a $7MM budget the same is true. Compromise has been necessary, and buyers have found reason to pause based on the slightest bit of compromise.  David, the powder room is painted green! 

Right now things are different. Perfection isn’t necessarily required. The market wants beautiful, newer homes in the $5-9MM range, and it has multiple buyers on the hunt. If you’re a seller of such a home, you’ve never found a particular abundance of liquidity. Today, you have it. I can’t say how long this bump in activity will last, but it’s likely not forever and ever. If you’re an owner of a pricey home and you’ve been thinking about selling, I can unequivocally say that now is the time. The market is ready to absorb some pricey inventory. This week, my estate listed at $9,950,000 will sell. That will give the market a print that it’s been looking for, and that should help give buyers the confidence to know that they’re not alone in their pursuit for pricey lakefront perfection.  If you’re a seller,  we’re well past the point where I need to tell you who to call for representation. It’s cute that other agents want to compete in this segment, but there’s only one guy whose worthy of your time.

That’s me. I’m that guy.

Oh September

Oh September

Without the weather, what would we talk about? When I meet someone new, what would I open the conversation with? If I couldn’t say, what a day! or, cold enough for you? or, it’s freezing out! then what would I say? I’d have to recreate my entire game, based about something new. That’s one heck of an outfit today. Who knew a green shirt and a green sweater could work? But then they’d know I was being insincere, and they’d wonder if I was really the right agent for them. They’d ask me, who was the president when you last combed your hair? Things would fall apart rapidly, and society would ultimately tear apart. The weather, and the way it makes our initial conversations so easy, this is what holds us together.

This summer featured two distinct seasons. First there was faux summer, that being June. The month of June is a month when every self respecting vacation home owner should be at their Lake Geneva home, but it is a month where the weekends are a gamble of epic proportions. Consider the weekends of June. This may be a title of my someday book, if I can ever figure out how to write more than 800 words at a time. The four Fridays of June were four difficult days. Fridays are of paramount importance to the vacation home set, as even though they are the shortest of the weekend days, by virtue of most arriving to the lake when the day is nearly over, it is important because the weather of that day usually sets the tone for the weekend. A sunny, warm Friday makes the transition from city to lake a celebrated event. A cold, dreary Friday makes the drive still important, but the celebration muted.

The four Fridays in June featured high temperatures that averaged 10 degrees below the historical norm. This included one particularly dastardly Friday where the temperature climbed to 62 degrees fahrenheit. The average for that day was 76 degrees. This is an epic fail, and June was both somewhat cold and oft rainy, and that’s why June was terrible and should be forgotten. Also, only 11 of the 30 days that month reached temperates at or above the historical average.

Summer started, rather abruptly, over the Fourth Of July Weekend. Capitalized because. Once summer began, July was pretty nice, and so was August. There were a few cold bits here and there, but nothing lasted and mostly we had generous sunshine and average temperatures. It was a good summer, but it wasn’t a hot summer. Lake Geneva recorded only 1 ninety degree day, though there were several high 80s days, and those are indistinguishable from 90 degree days, especially if I’m wearing a shirt of some sort. Really, looking back, July and August were about right, and days were warm and nights were cool, and all was right with the world so long as your world had you in Lake Geneva with frequency.

September ends today. It ends with a 64 degree sunny day, where the only clouds are puffy and white, littered here and there but certainly not everywhere. September began with this bright sky, and the month continued mostly uninterupted with this perfect weather. There was a wedding weekend in September that required fine September weather. Events were to be held outside, under the open air, without a tent in sight. Lake Geneva was up to the task and delivered a perfect early fall weekend, with sunshine and pleasant temps and a noticeable absence of humidity. The month continued and it continued warm and dry, sunny and full. Last Saturday I sat on a lakeside lawn for some time and thought that if a day could be any more perfect I’d rather not know.

So here’s to September. Here’s to the summer bookend that performed perfectly. Here’s to the month that makes me hate June even more. Now I must think of October, and while I push back against pumpkins and dried corn in September, I welcome them in October. September isn’t the gateway to anything, it’s just the most quiet and predictable month of summer. October is the true gateway, and I’m ready.