Blog : Outing

Entry Level Lakefront Market Update

Entry Level Lakefront Market Update

I’m not sure if there’s a more interesting segment in our market than the entry level lake access market. While other segments exist because particular homes move in and out of that defined value range, the entry level market is truly the only range for which their is no defined price structure. When times are good, entry level might mean $1.5-2MM. When times were bad, we learned that entry level meant $800k-$1.2MM. If we look over any particular decade in our past, there’s nothing consistent about the pricing of this segment. In that, it’s a curious segment, but beyond that, it’s also our most important lakefront segment.

Yes, yes, we know liquidity at the top end is the most unique attribute of our market. We know our liquidity makes every other vacation market in the Midwest look like a low quality timeshare rental. But still, in spite of that robust upper bracket strength, the entry level market is the market that matters to more people. The goal of vacation home buyers, if the budget affords, is to find lakefront.  Knowing that the entry level market is directly connected to the upper-end off water market, we know that if the entry level market struggles then the off-water market struggles. If the off-water market is strong, then that must mean that not only is the entry level market strong, but it’s light on inventory. These two markets are connected, and 2018 has proved that once again.

This isn’t about the off-water market, even though it is remarkably strong and liquid as a direct result of the low inventory and sales patterns of that entry level lakefront market. This is about the entry level market itself, and what 2018 has done to it, and for it.  This year, there have been four lakefront homes sold between $1.1MM and $1.25MM.  All four of those properties had around 50′ of frontage, and three of the four were on Walworth Avenue in Williams Bay. If you’re familiar, Walworth Avenue is the road to the North of Pier 290. The other sale was in the Elgin Club.

The fact that there have been four sales in this segment isn’t surprising. It is somewhat surprising that the prices, in spite of the spectacular market activity of 2018, have been somewhat stagnant in that tight, low buck range. While the homes that sold were certainly habitable, it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that they are all in need of some additional attention. Whether that comes in the from of wide-scale renovations or surface improvements, that is up to the new owners. Will any of these four be scraped to make way for a new home?  No one, except the owners, can answer that question.

Walworth Avenue hasn’t shown any real strength over the mid-million dollar market. There’s a giant newer home on that road, one that represents a significant investment, but is that an individual pursuing what is best for that individual, or is that a market market-minded play? Will Walworth Avenue soon be home to more tear downs, to more new construction? And if so, will that new construction find favor in the market?  I honestly don’t know the answer to my own questions. I’m inclined to suggest that new construction in that location wouldn’t be a wise play. But I know the tight inventory markets on the lakefront between $1.8MM and $2.5MM, so it wouldn’t be crazy to suggest an owner could pursue new construction here, even though the neighborhood hasn’t shown the ability to support it.

There have been a few other happenings in the entry level market this year, notably a pending foreclosure in the Lake Geneva Highlands and a private lakefront sale on Outing Drive. You’ll remember the Outing house, as I had it for sale earlier this year, and another agent had it for sale for a spell as well. The home sold in what appears to be a private sale for a price (as shown in the transfer rolls) of  $1,525,000. That’s a reasonable price for that house. The Highlands lakefront is one that was on market last year and under contract (per MLS), but failed to close. That home is likely valued in the mid $1s, and I’ll be curious to discover if it comes back to market as REO, or if someone takes a stab at it through the sheriff’s sale.

Today, the entry level market is once again void of inventory. The lowest priced home with frontage is over in Trinke’s, a property with the lagoon in front of it, priced at $1.85MM.  The next available lakefront is to the East of there, priced just over $2.2MM. This is a tight market, and a difficult one for would-be lakefront buyers.  What’s interesting here is that the lack of inventory and consistent sales really hasn’t translated into valuation gains in this segment. I’d expect that’ll change if the market stays tight for too much longer. Maybe it won’t change at all until someone breaks the pattern on these entry level streets and builds something new. Something that seems out of place, something that doesn’t make sense. Or at least it’ll feel that way until everyone else does it, too.

 

465 Outing

465 Outing

When David Bowie died, it was hard to scroll through Twitter and find someone who had not, at some point, met him. In line at McDonald’s. Rushing through Heathrow. Buying shrimp to soak under the Anna Maria fishing dock.  Well wishers wrote RIP, I’ll never forget that time I saw Bowie buying eggs at the Mobile in SuchandSuch, NY. This is what happens when famous people die. In the same way, everyone has a story about a lake house.  A friend’s lake house. The weekends there in high school. An uncle’s lake house. The August fishing trips.  The grandparents’ cottage, so far up north that it was just one long weekend every summer. No matter the duration of the exposure, no matter the quality of the water or the size of the fish, a lake house weekend imprints a permanent memory.

But what of that lake house.  What does it need to be? Does it need to be 5500 square feet,  with a four car garage and a three slip pier?  Does it need to be all shine and polish, large and kept, perfect? Or does it just need to be on a lake? Is this the only real requirement of a lake house? Is this why families with lake houses on obscure awful lakes still make the pilgrimage to their terrible water every summer?  We pretend to know why we seek out and buy these homes. It’s because we want to make memories. We want our kids to love us when they’re older. We want to experience weekends in a different way. We want something else, something different, something that we know other people have. These are the motivators that begin the search, but once the search is underway, these tend to fall by the wayside in favor of appliance make and bathroom material.

There was a little house at 465 Outing Drive in Williams Bay. This house is a few doors West of George Williams College, where Music By The Lake strums each summer. The cottage wasn’t big. It wasn’t nice. It wasn’t clean. In fact, it wasn’t habitable. But it was lakefront, and that’s what caused an investor to buy it and begin a thorough and significant renovation. New this and new that. New everything, almost. New hardwood floors, new windows, siding, roof. Insulation. Trim, appliances. Kitchen, baths. Marble. Patio. Parking. Everything new. The process took several months, and when the home was completed it represented the finest of blends. A lakefront home with vintage cottage charm, outfitted with modern conveniences and luxury appointments.

The home came to market this past summer for a few dollars less than $2MM. The property was, after all, a perfect example of lakefront charm. Still, the market pushed back, and the price was forced to adjust. Today, I’ve brought this property back to market for $1.699MM. A price that fits into the entry level segment of our market without requiring anything of the new buyer. Purchase this home and change something if you wish, but there’s nothing required. Just purchase, move, and enjoy your weekends in an entirely different way.  There’s a private pier, beautiful wide water views of Fontana Bay, and an easy shore path walk to Chuck’s, Gordy’s, and the Fontana lakefront scene. You could buy a cottage on the lake and renovate it yourself. You could. Or you could just buy this place and save yourself the frustration, expense, and delays that accompany such a significant project.