Blog : Knollwood

2017 Upper Bracket Lake Access Market Review

2017 Upper Bracket Lake Access Market Review

It’s well known and generally accepted that anyone with a lakefront budget will wish for lakefront. There were some people who lived up the road from my parents’ lakefront house in Williams Bay. Those people would tell me how they were glad they didn’t live on the lake. Too much noise from the boats, the waves, the sound of all that enjoyment. They preferred, they said, to live away from the lake, where it’s quiet. Where the lapping or crashing of the waves cannot find them. I remember that even as a young child I knew those people were lying. No one would prefer to be off the lake, and if a budget allows and the aim is true, then lakefront is the result. Or is it?

The upper end of our lake access market is unique in the flexibility such a budget might afford. A lakefront buyer with a budget up to $2MM might very well, and usually will, choose lakefront. But what will that lakefront be? Will it usually be nice? Will it be large? Will it afford privacy? Well, no, not usually.  The concept applies to those with lower lake home budgets as well. If you’re a $1.2MM buyer, I can typically find you lakefront. But will that lakefront be a beautiful house with two car garage and a pool? Of course it won’t. It’ll be a cottage, with some questionable structural supports and tight neighbors. But for $1.2MM an off-water buyer can find something quite unique. They can find a boatslip, maybe a view, maybe privacy, maybe a pool, maybe five bedrooms. This is why even when market segments overlap within the same price boundaries, many buyers will opt off water in order to gain something the on-water home cannot offer.

In 2017, the upper bracket lake access market experienced a strong influx of buyer traffic and closed the year with a significant volume total. 2017 closed 27 off-water homes priced over $500,000. That’s a huge number, but what’s most remarkable is the presence of liquidity in the $900k and above segment.  This lofty segment closed nine homes, including two in the $1.5MM range.  During 2016, the same segment closed 22 properties, with just five selling for more than $900k.

Thirteen of those 27 homes sold with transferable boat slips. Two of the sales were in our co-op communities, one in the Congress Club for $1.53MM and one in Belvedere Park for $564k. There were no public sales in the Harvard Club for 2017. Associations with volume in this segment included Geneva Oaks, Cedar Point Park, Country Club Estates, Indian Hills, Oakwood Estates, Black Point, The Lindens, Knollwood, The Loch Vista Club, Sybil Lane, Oak Shores, The Lake Geneva Club, Forest Rest, Maytag and Sylvan Trail Estates. That’s some widespread activity, and the market should be pleased for producing such strong volume.  Oddly,  there wasn’t a single residential MLS sale in this segment in Glenwood Springs last year.

Most of these sales made good sense to me. I was involved in six of these 27 sales, which means that at least six of the sales made perfect sense to me. Of the other sales, I was surprised at a few of them, including an off-water home with no slip that sold north of $1MM. Another shocker, at least to me, was the sale of a hilltop home in Fontana that closed over $1.5MM and was subsequently torn down.  That property lacked a slip, but the lake view is, as a point of fact, one of the best off-water views I’ve ever seen.

I was asked this week what I thought would be the better buy with a $1MM budget: an on-water cottage or an off-water home. I admitted I’d always look lakefront first, but I would consider a larger lot off-water, so long as I had a boat slip and was located in a high quality neighborhood (think Black Point, Lindens, Glen Fern, Loramoor, 700 Club). In those settings, I would happily consider off-water to be a near equal trade off. This segment today is light on inventory, as is the rest of the vacation home market. Just 16 off-water homes are available priced in excess of $500k. Of these available properties, my favorite is the modern home (my listing) on  South Lakeshore Drive that’s been reduced to $1.095MM. This is a lot of house in a rare location, and while it’s off-water it feels like a private lakefront home. It’s unique, but it’s a winner.

This particular segment is heavily influenced by overlapping lakefront inventory, which is, at the moment, similarly low in inventory. If entry level lakefront properties continue to be difficult to source, and the off-water market in the $900k-$1.8MM range provides some nice options, expect this market to benefit. If you’re a buyer in search of a lake house around the million dollar mark, I’m here to help.

Above, an idyllic cottage I sold this summer in the Lake Geneva Club.
2017 Entry Level Lake Access Market Review

2017 Entry Level Lake Access Market Review

That’s a mouthful. I’m sure there’s a better way to say it for search engine optimization, but the market is best defined in that way.  The market isn’t particularly flashy. It won’t make any headlines. It won’t be in Crain’s or in Architectural Digest. But the entry level lake access market is the market that’s as important as any other here. These are the homes available to people who have enough fiscal power to make a vacation home a reality, but don’t have lakefront budgets.  For the purposes of this post, this segment remains at $500,000 and under.

All of these 2017 market reviews are going to tell similar stories. It’s all about inventory. About volume. And about how the inventory is either going to build and feed the market or shrivel and starve it. Today, there are just 12 homes priced under $500k with access to Geneva Lake. Remember, these are not municipal access homes- these are private, club style access points.  These are the associations you know, the associations that can offer a path to the lake, a park, a pier, a diving board, maybe some summertime geraniums in pots.

Those 12 homes vary wildly, just as this market varies. A $200k cottage in Country Club Estates is not at all like a $500k home in Country Club Estates. A small cottage in Oak Shores with a slip for $450k isn’t much dissimilar to a small cottage without a slip in Cedar Point Park, except that the Cedar Point cottage will be 50% cheaper. This is a market that I’ve gladly served for two decades, and it’s a market that hinges on a very important question: Do you want a nice house or do you want to be close to the lake?  You cannot choose both.

For the year just ended, we sold 61 lake access homes of all makes and models, priced under $500k.  The 2016 total was 56, so we’re heading in the right direction.  Just three of those homes had transferable boat slips, proving how hard it is to find a slip in this segment. Perhaps best of all, I personally sold all three of those homes. Why did I sell those homes? Well, because I know how valuable a boat slip is. I know owning a home here is wonderful, but if all you really want is to hang out on a pier and boat, then you’re going to be miserable in your off-water slip-less home, even if it has some stone counters and a master bathroom.

The key to understanding this segment comes back to that bold question about proximity. That drives this particular market more than anything. You can buy a nice house in Country Club Estates for $500k. It won’t be remarkably close to the lake. Or you could buy a small cottage in Knollwood for $500k that might be 900′ from the water. Which do you value? Do you want to walk down to the pier in the morning to cast your line a few times, motivated by the hope that something might bight? Or would you rather sit on your screened porch, reading a book thinking about where fish fry will be on Friday night? Answer those questions, and you’ll have a clear direction for your pursuit.

2018 should be just like 2017. Inventory is terrible now, yes, but it won’t be that way forever. This market might be more sensitive to the new tax law, but if inventory builds there’s nothing stopping 2018 from falling in the 2016/2017 volume range. Prices are increasing, albeit modestly. Value still exists here, and I’ll be here to help you find it.

Geneva Lakefront Market Update

Geneva Lakefront Market Update

This market has a way about it.  Sometimes the market feels slow to me. It feels sluggish, lifeless. It feels as though the last seller has sold and the last buyer has bought, and the rest of the days we’ll just while away, wishing for the way it was. It feels as though we’ve done everything that we were going to do. We’ve sold the last big house. Sold the last lot. Sold the last cheap house. It feels as thought we’ve run out of tricks. And then a new week begins and the market proves why it is the single most robust vacation home market in the entire Midwest.

This week was one of those weeks. New contracts flying. New listings selling. A fresh contract on my lakefront home in the South Shore Club ($4.595MM). A fresh contract on a baseball player’s house ($4.995) in Fontana. A new contract on an entry level house ($1.195MM).  I wrote on that house earlier this week on behalf of a buyer, only to be told the house had just the day before gone under contract. A listing on 68′ in Lake Geneva for $1.799MM, under contract within 24 hours of hitting the open market. A contract on a spec home in Cedar Point ($3.85MM). Two more contracts are still pending,  those on my listing on Jerseyhurst ($2.895MM), and a lakefront in Knollwood ($3.325MM). The market, just when it seemed as though the summer lull was taking hold, has surged.

Of the 28 lakefront homes available today, 7 are pending sale, leaving just 21 available homes.  Lest you think all of the good homes are sold, consider that there’s still a lakefront home available on Geneva Lake priced under $1MM.  We’re going to run out of those homes someday, so if you have vision, it’s time to snap up this remaining bit of aged, cheap inventory. My listing in the Elgin Club ($1.975MM) has no reason to be available today. It should be sold. Perhaps I’m not very good at this game, because I’m failing on that house. It’s a large house on 50′ of level frontage with private pier and fantastic features, and it’s available today.  You should come see it this weekend. My listing in Fontana for $3.2MM is turn key perfection. My Loramoor lakefront for $5.995MM couldn’t be replicated for the price it’ll sell for. The market might be active, but there is value still to be discovered.

Aged inventory has a way of weighing heavily here, and today there is still plenty of it. There are properties entering their second autumn on market, and those homes, in spite of the market conditions, appear ripe to sell right. Let’s go look at those together. Let’s revisit the things the market has passed up time and time again. And let’s be first in line for the new offerings that are bound to make their way to market this fall. Remember, September is only fall in our minds, it’s still summer on our skin.  For now, let’s rejoice in the summer that we’ve had. Let’s be proud of this market, and of the recent spate of sales that will let 2017 be our sixth fantastic year in a row. And let’s realize that in spite of all this activity, there are still deals to be had. Here’s to this place. Here’s to us. Here’s to the last Labor Day weekend you’re ever going to have to spend in the city.

Lake Geneva Market Update

Lake Geneva Market Update

Next week I’m going to do an in depth review of Abbey Springs, Geneva National, the lakefront condo market, and the secondary condo markets (Abbey Villas, Abbey Hill, Willabay, Bayside Point, etc). But today we’re going to look at the lake access and lakefront markets, because there are some interesting things occurring within these segments. I wrote earlier this week that each segment is active, which sounds like something easy to do and easier to write, but it’s not easy to do. Rarely do all pricing segments of one major market feature the same general mood. Rarely does a $200k cottage sell with the same frequency as a $4.5MM lakefront. But that’s what we have today, and it’s really quite amazing.

We know the entry level vacation home segment is super active with 10 out of the 28 homes priced under $500k currently showing as active with offer. What’s more interesting to me is that we have 22 homes available priced between $500k and $1MM and just three of those are pending sale. That’s not a terrible number, and that’s actually not what’s particularly unique. In this price range buyers will generally be able to find a transferable boatslip. Not always, but often. They’ll also typically be looking for a lake view, or proximity to the lake, or something unique about the house.  What’s curious today is that of the three homes pending sale in this segment, just one of those homes has a slip. The other two do not, and both are priced in the $600s.  Buyers buy for all sorts of reasons, so I would never seek to explain all purchase behavior, but if I’m a buyer in this segment I’m likely looking for a slip first, and every single other thing second. Buyers often think they won’t need a slip. Then, after the first weekend at the new lake house, they’re wondering where they’re going to moor the boat they’d like to buy.

The other range that continues to impress is the off-water lake access market over $1MM. This range was slow last year at this time, with ample inventory and few buyers.  The market has absorbed much of that aged 2016 product. Today there are 10 off water homes priced between $1MM and $1.7MM. Of those, two are under contract. That might not seem like a lot, but it is. As the entry level lakefront inventory shrinks (just two lakefront homes priced under $1.5MM today), expect to see this market garner more and more attention. The idea here is simple. If a buyer can’t buy lakefront, they’ll look for the next best thing. And if lakefront is rare and pricy, often buyers will seek some sort of off-water property with a slip or a view or maybe both. These are not market mistakes, generally anyway, but they are market moves born not out of pure desire, but simply out of limited options. I’d like to take the pretty girl to the prom, but she’s already going with the quarterback, so I’ll take this other girl, who likes fidget spinners and eats erasers, but her hair is okay.

Lastly, the lakefront market itself.  There are offers being flung around like so many pancakes at the fly-in-breakfast. The one out West of Walworth. These offers are generally coming together, but increasingly sellers are holding out for more money. Better terms. This might be a good idea or it might be a mistake, and I’m going to go with mistake. Some of the properties with offers are flawed- and the sellers used to understand those flaws. Now the sellers figure the market is in their favor, and their flaws are hidden by the hysteria of it all.   They shouldn’t be this way. The market can turn as quickly as a 10 percent correction in the S&P, so sellers should remain confident but cautious. New pending sale mentions this week include the Congress Club listing in the $1.6s, the north shore Fontana lakefront in the low $2s, and the lakefront on South Lakeshore in Fontana in the mid $4s. These sales will all make sense once they close, so I see nothing particularly unique or exciting here. Rounding out the lakefront activity, my pending contract on the Folly Lane property listed in the high $7s.

Inventory remains the question for each segment. The MLS only shows 17 true lakefront homes available this morning. Of those, there are some nice properties, some rare properties, and some that represent solid value. The low inventory situation will likely persist this year, though I’d expect several new offerings to come to market over the next 30-45 days. As always, if you’d like to know about these new offerings before the rest of the market, just let me know.   The lake today is buzzing with activity, and not just of the housing variety. Landscape crews are hustling to mulch beds and plant annuals. Pier guys are racing to install the last of the piers. Irrigation systems are being activated. It’s a frenzy, to be sure. But it’s our frenzy and I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Above, a new lakefront I’m bringing to market next week.
Linn Township Lake Access Market Review

Linn Township Lake Access Market Review

Once, I was in trouble with a seller. The seller was upset, but not upset like a seller gets when I leave a light on. Which, by the way, I tend to do. It’s like a puzzle, a prize, a riddle, each time different but always the same. A light, left on, somewhere.  But this seller was more angry than that, seriously angry, and not because I had left a light on or eaten a Reeses Peanut Butter Cup out of the pantry, which, of course, I never, ever, do. This time the seller was angry because I listed her home in the MLS under “Linn Township”. She said her home was in Lake Geneva, that no one looks for a home in Linn Township. That Lake Geneva is everything and Linn Township is nothing. Where is Linn Township? No one knows. She was upset.

This is not entirely uncommon, and if you’re a buyer I’m guessing you’ve possibly struggled with this distinction. The City of Lake Geneva is one municipality. The Town of Linn is another.  Where the confusion comes in is the mailing address for Linn Township homes is Lake Geneva, WI.  So, my confused seller from the example above was indeed correct, that her property had a Lake Geneva address, but it physically wasn’t in the City of Lake Geneva. Making matters worse, the Town of Geneva (think Lake Como, Geneva National, etc) also has a Lake Geneva mailing address but isn’t at all the City of Lake Geneva.  Of course none of this matters if Neumann was right and zip codes are meaningless.

Linn Township, whether confused for the City of Lake Geneva or not, is, without any doubt, the biggest player in our Lake Geneva lake access vacation home market. Linn has loads and loads of lake access communities, in fact, far more than all of the other lakefront municipalities combined.  I attempted a quick mental count and grew quickly tired by the time I had worked my way from Lake Geneva to Williams Bay, adding up 10 associations in that stretch alone. That brings up another item of geographical housekeeping: Linn Township is that area on the lake that extends on the North Shore between the City of Lake Geneva and the Village of Williams Bay. It’s also the area on the South Shore that runs from Fontana on the  West all the way back to the City of Lake Geneva on the East. It’s a large municipality, hosting a few dozen lake access associations, some big and others very, very small.

Today, just 16 off-water lake access homes are available in Linn Township. That’s a tragically low number, but it’s actually more inventory than most of the other municipalities have, relative to their 2016 sales. Last year, 12 lake access homes sold in Linn Township, priced from $69k for a cottage in Knollwood (please do not ask me to find you a $69k cottage in Knollwood, because the one that existed just sold), all the way up to an off-water estate in Loramoor that I sold for $1.625MM.

Maple Hills had a sale in the $200s, but before I tell you more, I will tell you that I’m not a huge fan of Maple Hills purely because it doesn’t feel like a lake access community. The location, approximately three million miles from the lake, makes it feel more like a subdivision in the woods than a subdivision near the lake, and for that reason, I’m not all that interested.  There was a sale in the Lake Geneva Beach Association at $360k, and there were sales in Wooddale (3), the Lake Geneva Highlands (2), Sunset Hills, Forest Rest, and Knollwood (2).  These are the sales, but 2016 was more notable for what didn’t sell, rather than for what did.

Per the MLS, there wasn’t a single closing in Shore Haven, Lake Geneva Club, Oak Shores, or Sybil Lane.  Nothing sold on Aspen Lane, nothing on Black Point, nothing in Glen Fern, nothing in Hollybush, nothing on Hunt Club Lane, nothing in Valley Park, nothing in the Lindens, nothing in Alta Vista, nothing here and nothing there. It was a year of limited inventory, and because of that, the sales totals were anemic. But beyond the lack of inventory pushing the overall number number, there were some notable offerings that didn’t transact. I discussed this at length in my year end review of the lake access market, but as a quick reminder, the market tested that $1.1-1.4MM price range for off-water, older homes that required significant updating and the market responded with a muffled, unenthusiastic, meh.

I don’t think the lake access inventory is going to stay limited for too long, but the lack of available inventory in each segment is causing a bit of gridlock for sellers that would-be move up buyers.  If you own a nice $600k cottage with a slip and you’re looking to upgrade to an entry level lakefront for $1.4MM, that’s really nice. But if you’re that seller who would be a buyer, you need something to buy. If you can’t find something to buy, then you’re not going to have something to sell, and if you’re not a seller then what am I doing here? This is the problem today, as each market needs a carrot waiting for it in the next market higher, and without that incentive to upgrade the market stalls. That’s what it feels like right now.

Linn Township is a wonderful municipality in which to own your lake house. The taxes are low, and without adjacent city-centers, the roads feel more rural, more quaint.  All of Linn Township functions on private well and septic (or holding tank), so that’s something to be aware of but it isn’t something to fear. I live in a home serviced by private well and septic and I’m almost entirely normal.  If you’re looking for a lake access home in Linn Township and your target association doesn’t have any open inventory today, please reach out to me and let me know what you’re looking for. I’ll go find it for you.

Geneva Lake Access 2016 Market Review

Geneva Lake Access 2016 Market Review

The most economical lakefront home to sell in 2016 was an odd little house in Knollwood. $1,075,000 was the required minimum price for 50′ of frontage on Geneva Lake. Farther up the road in Knollwood, the most economical lake access home of 2016 sold for $69,000. Those two entry points won’t let us assume that Knollwood is a lower end association, because that’s not at all the case. Knollwood is a beautiful association that boasts what I believe to be the nicest large association lakefront park on this entire lake. But in 2016 if you were looking to eek onto the lake, Knollwood was in focus, and if you wanted to eek into the lake access market, you had no choice but to keep your eyes on Knollwood.  This post isn’t about Knollwood.

The lake access market had a solid 2016, though in comparison the lakefront market itself fared much better. In total, there were 77 lake access homes sold in the MLS, the most economical being the $69k Knollwood cottage, the most expensive being my off-water estate in Loramoor with 3 acres, pool, slip, large house, detached garage with studio, water feature, gated entry, etc and etc, at $1.625MM.   The lowest price paid for a home with transferrable slip was in Wooddale, that of a brick Arlington Heights-esque ranch that sold in August for $330k. The highest price someone paid for a lake access home  home without a slip was $800k in Geneva Manor. In total, 12 homes with slips or private piers sold last year. I sold four of those.  A few more with available ramps or buoys sold.   2015 recorded 68 lake access sales, so by any measure our 2016 was a fantastic year.

Of the 77 sales, five closed at $1MM or more.  In that upper bracket lake access market, some things were made obvious not because of what sold, but because of what didn’t. This year offered ample, rare inventory in that segment, with homes available in Glen Fern, Black Point, The Lindens, and Academy Estates. These homes lasted through 2016 and closed the year unsold, or expired. The inventory in these associations was in the low million range, and the availability of these homes was something that the market wouldn’t typically take for granted. A home one off the lake in the Lindens would be desirable, no matter the condition. Yet the market pushed back and these homes failed to sell. What is the takeaway from this? Well, for starters, if buyers are going off-lake in the million and over range they’re expecting something pretty special. Like the Loramoor property, with a slip and a pool and big lot and big, newer house. Or something unique like my immaculate, gem box on Oakwood that I sold in Glenwood Springs for $1.1MM. Give the buyer something unique and rare and they’ll buy it. Give them a $1.3MM fixer upper built in the 1970s and they’re going to take a pass, unless the lot is somehow so incredible that a tear down is warranted.

That 2016 sold inventory included two entry level cottages in our lakefront cooperatives. A small home in the Harvard Club sold for $510,500 and a cottage in Belvedere Park sold for $411k. The Harvard Club had a slip, but Belvedere Park has all-year municipal water and sewer service, so you can pick which one you’d rather have. Nothing sold in the Congress Club, though inventory existed there for most of the year.  Foreclosures were not common in 2016, but at least two homes did sell as REO,  though both were crappy and smaller and sub-$150k.  I don’t suspect foreclosure to play any sort of starring role in 2017 either.  Of note, 25 of the 77 sales were marked as Cash closings, which I find a bit surprising. Rates were remarkably low during 2016, and I would have expected more buyers in this range to take advantage of those rates. Instead, 1/3 opted to pay cash, which proves the strong position of many Lake Geneva buyers.

For 2017, we’re low on inventory. There are just 36 lake access homes available as of this morning. That’s a low tally, especially when you consider that seven of those are priced in excess of $1MM. Our core lake access market is the $450-750k home with a slip, and of those there are just three available.  Because of this inventory condition, the lake access market will follow the lakefront market for 2017 and find itself heavily dependent on adding quality inventory. If we can add inventory in the first quarter, we’ll have a solid year. Interest rates are rising but they aren’t rising enough to squelch the desire of city families to spend their weekends in a different state of being. Expect the lake access market to have a quality 2017, but volume will not reach 2016 levels. Much of the remaining inventory is now aged, so there is plenty of value lurking in the available homes. If you’re hunting for value, I’m happy to be your guide.

 

2015 Lake Geneva Lake Access Market Review

2015 Lake Geneva Lake Access Market Review

The real estate market in 2011 was pretty bad. It was fun, if bad, because sellers wanted to sell and buyers, though fewer than now, wanted to buy. It was a great year, and the Lake Geneva markets functioned as they should. Few buyers, few sellers, plenty of motivation for both sides. What’s not well understood now is that the market is no longer healing. It’s no longer mending. It’s no longer about to be something. It is something. It’s already there. It’s four full years into this new housing boom. To suggest that the recovery is somehow nascent is to either misunderstand the word or the markets, possibly both.

The lake access market on Geneva had a most terrific 2015.   2014 was similarly good, and in that year we sold 61 single family lake access homes near Geneva Lake. This year just ended we sold 70, making the good of 2014 look small and weak compared to the splendor of 2015. Both years saw activity in all segments, as the woes of individual off-lake segments have long been left in the dust of 2011 and 2012.   Both years experienced their share of anomalies, with 2014 printing a parkway home in the $1.5MM range and 2015 trading a Knollwood house for $2.2MM. Outliers they are, but still proof of a market truth: Shiny sells, if the implementer of the shiny is willing to take a bath on their shiny bad investment.

Proving that Lake Geneva can indeed be a market for the masses, we sold 17 lake access homes under $250k in 2015. I would have expected that number to be higher, as interest rates hovered at their lowest levels since Cain asked Abel for a short term loan to buy a very heavy rock, and this market should be especially sensitive to interest rates.  We sold another 48 lake access homes priced between $250k and $1MM.

Of interest in this meat and potato portion of our off-lake market is that two parkway homes in Cedar Point sold just under $1MM. For those who were not feverishly watching this market in the early and mid 2000s, you cannot appreciate the spectacle that is two parkway sales in one calendar year. For a while, during the escalation years of the prior cycle, Parkway homes were mythical. They were sometimes available, most of the time not. They were rare. To catch a glimpse of one on the open market was akin to a Yeti sighting, or to Tim Allen actually vacationing in Michigan. They were elusive, and they were desirable and the market loved them. That affection has returned, and prices up to and just over one million dollars is a reasonable ransom for such a rare property.

In that segment there are two other market tales, both sad tales, sure, but both telling an obvious market story. In 2007, a large log-ish home in Somerset came to market for $1.1MM. Two years later, it was raised to $1.295MM. The years that followed featured a vast array of For Sale signs in the front lawn, including a stint where my sign was there. The price dropped and dropped, as the market didn’t particularly enjoy an off-water home that lacked a slip but did possess a $20k property tax bill. In 2015, the home finally sold. For $600k. The heat of the last three years of bull market didn’t touch that property until last summer, and at $600k one could hardly suspect the transaction gave the seller any warm feelings.

Another sale that tells a similar story, but on the other side of the lake. It is no secret that the Lake Geneva Club is one of my favorite lake access associations. I like the street, I like the feel, I like the aesthetic. A home came to market there in 2007 for $829k, hoping to ride the coattails of a sale I had just closed for $790k in the same association. My sale was of a cottage one home from the lake, this offering was much, much farther away from that water epicenter.  This property came to market at various prices over recent years, on and off again, under contract at least once, then back to market after a failed deal. That home mercifully sold last summer for $500k. What was it likely worth in 2007 when it listed for $829k? Around $500k.  Medicine is often best taken quickly and without hesitation, because the longer you dwell on the smell and texture the less likely you will be to swallow it.

I’m not sure how I feel about 2016 in this segment. In theory,  market returns for 2015 will not make anyone feel particularly paper rich, especially if they went long TWTR with me in April. Interest rates will be rising, sure, but slowly, and anyone with any historical perspective will not be too upset by 4.75% interest rates. I expect the market to remain solid, and there will be outliers in 2016 just as there have been in recent years. Brokers love to whip markets into a frenzy, and all it takes is some shiny photographs of a Wolf stove and voila, some naive buyer will pay a lakefront price for a lake access home. Want to avoid that sort of amateurish buying behavior? Work with me, because I know the difference between an outlier and value.