Blog : Fontana

465 Outing

465 Outing

When David Bowie died, it was hard to scroll through Twitter and find someone who had not, at some point, met him. In line at McDonald’s. Rushing through Heathrow. Buying shrimp to soak under the Anna Maria fishing dock.  Well wishers wrote RIP, I’ll never forget that time I saw Bowie buying eggs at the Mobile in SuchandSuch, NY. This is what happens when famous people die. In the same way, everyone has a story about a lake house.  A friend’s lake house. The weekends there in high school. An uncle’s lake house. The August fishing trips.  The grandparents’ cottage, so far up north that it was just one long weekend every summer. No matter the duration of the exposure, no matter the quality of the water or the size of the fish, a lake house weekend imprints a permanent memory.

But what of that lake house.  What does it need to be? Does it need to be 5500 square feet,  with a four car garage and a three slip pier?  Does it need to be all shine and polish, large and kept, perfect? Or does it just need to be on a lake? Is this the only real requirement of a lake house? Is this why families with lake houses on obscure awful lakes still make the pilgrimage to their terrible water every summer?  We pretend to know why we seek out and buy these homes. It’s because we want to make memories. We want our kids to love us when they’re older. We want to experience weekends in a different way. We want something else, something different, something that we know other people have. These are the motivators that begin the search, but once the search is underway, these tend to fall by the wayside in favor of appliance make and bathroom material.

There was a little house at 465 Outing Drive in Williams Bay. This house is a few doors West of George Williams College, where Music By The Lake strums each summer. The cottage wasn’t big. It wasn’t nice. It wasn’t clean. In fact, it wasn’t habitable. But it was lakefront, and that’s what caused an investor to buy it and begin a thorough and significant renovation. New this and new that. New everything, almost. New hardwood floors, new windows, siding, roof. Insulation. Trim, appliances. Kitchen, baths. Marble. Patio. Parking. Everything new. The process took several months, and when the home was completed it represented the finest of blends. A lakefront home with vintage cottage charm, outfitted with modern conveniences and luxury appointments.

The home came to market this past summer for a few dollars less than $2MM. The property was, after all, a perfect example of lakefront charm. Still, the market pushed back, and the price was forced to adjust. Today, I’ve brought this property back to market for $1.699MM. A price that fits into the entry level segment of our market without requiring anything of the new buyer. Purchase this home and change something if you wish, but there’s nothing required. Just purchase, move, and enjoy your weekends in an entirely different way.  There’s a private pier, beautiful wide water views of Fontana Bay, and an easy shore path walk to Chuck’s, Gordy’s, and the Fontana lakefront scene. You could buy a cottage on the lake and renovate it yourself. You could. Or you could just buy this place and save yourself the frustration, expense, and delays that accompany such a significant project.

1014 South Lakeshore Sells

1014 South Lakeshore Sells

The most important lakefront home I’ve ever sold is 1014 South Lakeshore Drive in Fontana. I sold that home for the first time in 2010 for $5.885MM. At the time, it was the largest sale I had ever completed, by a factor of at least two. It mattered, this sale, it mattered a whole lot. The fact that I sold the home owned by the owner of our largest local brokerage was something that people noticed, and it helped propel me to the volume that I’ve been pleased to represent since. Last week, I sold that home again. This time for $7,350,000, and as you could imagine, the sale matters this time around as well.

I first listed that home two years ago and received an offer within a few months of the initial listing. That offer didn’t come together, and then the property sat on the market for all of the following year.  The reason it languished for some time is simple: when buyers are looking to spend $7.95MM they are expecting perfection, and any slight blemish that might interrupt that perception is cause for rejection. And so I worked and I worked and then over the summer a new contract, a new scheduled closing date, a new buyer on the line for 1014 South Lakeshore.

In the months that followed there were plenty of ups and downs, other buyers wishing to buy the house came forward, and the house that I couldn’t sell for nearly two years became a house I could have sold two or three times. The market turned, buyers at the higher levels materialized, and 1014 South Lakeshore became a house that was no longer just an expensive house in Fontana. It was THE house in Fontana. Last week it closed, and I remain eternally grateful to the seller who has trusted me with so many lakefront purchases and sales.  Loyalty is a frail thing in real estate, and when a client remains loyal over a fifteen year period that’s a special and unique thing. To that seller I owe much, perhaps a career.

Another sale last week, this one with more intrigue. In November of 2015 pier 514 sold for $3.95MM. It was a nice sale, a good market price for 186 feet of Fontana frontage spread out over 4 acres.  That lakefront just sold again last week, this time for $5.45MM. There is no typo here. There were no improvements done to the house, unlike the sale at 1014 that underwent a supreme facelift and renovation over the years since the 2010 print.  Pier 514 just sold for $1.5MM more than it sold for last year. 12 months, 38% appreciation.  Wow.

So did the market move that much? Of course not. To suggest it did is pure insanity. The market didn’t move more than a few points, but some buyer from somewhere, perhaps a buyer with a penchant for filming Lincoln commercials, that buyer thought $5.45MM was a reasonable ransom for that large property.  Do I think that buyer overpaid? It doesn’t particularly matter, because if a buyer wanted 186′ in Fontana with 4 acres of woods, there were no other options. Personally, I like my sale near Pebble Point with 181′ of frontage and 4 acres for $3.93MM much better, but that’s just me, and I’m value minded.  For the market, it’s a terrific sale, for that buyer turned seller, a magnificent maneuver in a typically stodgy market.

Another week, two more sales, both over $5MM. I wasn’t involved in the lower priced sale, but 2016 has now seen six lakefront properties print over $3.9MM. Of those six, I’ve represented either the buyer or seller in five of them. Those sales have helped push my sales volume over $56,000,000 on the year, and I don’t mention that to be vain. I simply mention that to prove a point. If you’re a lakefront buyer or seller with a Geneva focus, now we both know I’m the guy for you.

Pleasant View Sells

Pleasant View Sells

No, this doesn’t mean your cottage with lake access is going to sell for $1.1MM. It doesn’t mean that small cottages with views and private piers are always going to sell quickly and without particular trouble. But it does mean that a perfect cottage in a perfect location with a perfect little pier and a perfect view just might sell. That’s why I closed on 434 Oakwood in Glenwood Springs last week. Because it’s a perfect cottage and perfection will always find a buyer. Congratulations to the new buyer for securing a most unique piece of our vacation home market.

 

 

Geneva Lakefront Sale

Geneva Lakefront Sale

We tend to buy real estate based on emotion and sell it based upon fact. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has ever bought or sold real estate. We buy it because we love it, because we want it, because it makes sense in some ways, sure, but mostly because we just have to have it. We sell it because we still love it, we still want it, but we know there are better ideas or better options, and so we adopt a more pragmatic approach and we move on past the thing that we so dearly loved. The hang up in real estate is when we’re buying something that we don’t truly love, that we don’t really want. Then every hiccup is perceived to be a bad omen, every slight difficulty a catastrophic event. When we sell, if we don’t truly understand that selling is what’s best, we cling to this real estate like grim death, knowing we have to sell but badly wishing against it.  Then we poison the process with emotion, the side of the process that’s supposed to be more fact based. This is real estate.

On Friday, I sold 976 South Lakeshore Drive in Fontana. I represented one of my favorite clients in that transaction, and the deal came together in the way that we wish all deals might. We listed the house, we showed the house, we received an offer on the house, then another, and then we sold the house for $3,300,000. Just $95k off of our original April ask. That’s a scenario that most sellers dream of, and indeed it is a process of which I’d love to be a consistent participant. For now, we’ll leave aside the part of the deal wherein I represented a fantastic seller as that family pursues the ultimate lakefront arrangement, and we’ll instead focus on the truths of this deal and try our best to learn from them.

I sold this home to this seller in 2013 for $2.95MM. The seller did some improving of the home, but nothing too overwhelming. The property just sold for $3.3MM, representing a 12% increase over the 2013 price. This is Takeaway #1 from this sale: The lakefront market is up around 12% from 2013. Is this a uniform number, benefiting or cursing all lakefront homes? Of course not. Some have risen more, others less, but this is a solid benchmark, proven out not by my own interpretation of the market mood, but by cold hard statistics. Other properties have been bought and resold over recent years, but these properties often have had some form of dramatic renovation between the time they first sold and the time they most recently sold, so those statistics offer simply more proof of a market tendency to overpay for renovated kitchens.

This property, at the time that it hit the market, was the only lakefront home in Fontana listed for sale under $7MM. As a result of that market gap, the seller of this home could have taken a common seller approach of assuming that because he was the only game in town, the market would dramatically overpay for the rights to own his exclusivity. I hear this often from sellers, and when they explain just how rare their property is I tend to daydream about things that don’t make me lose all faith in humanity, like trout streams and the lake on a calm summer morning. The sellers explain, if a buyer wants this particular thing, in this particular location, they’ll have to pay. Unintelligent sellers call this the “price of admission”. It is true that there is a price of admission, but you know I like to compare real estate to cars, so to be a seller offering his rare property for a ridiculous number is akin to me listing my 5 year old BMW for $100,000 because that is indeed the only BMW in Williams Bay listed for sale. If you want that sweet BMW, you’ll have to pay up. Sellers of houses are just as ridiculous, and this seller didn’t succumb to that absurdity. Instead, we discussed the market, targeted a price range, and we listed the home at what the market indicated would be an acceptable price. One month later we had two buyers in line, proving our theory correct.

The lakefront market as a whole is relatively slow right now. There are two other lakefronts closing this week, both to buyers whom I’m pleased to represent, and another in Lake Geneva with a shared pier. Don’t ask how I feel about shared piers. Two weeks ago the older lakefront home on the hill in Cedar Point closed for $1.515MM, representing a reasonable ransom for a house with a tremendous view and approximately three trillion stairs to and from the water.  YTD there have been 9 lakefront sales. 2015 had ten lakefronts closed as of June 13th, with two of those sales being involved in a trade. The market today feels somewhat sluggish, but it’s actually right on track. Last year, from June 14th through December 31st, there were a whopping 20 lakefronts closed, meaning 2016 has some big shoes to fill. The market could very well turn on in a similar fashion to last year, and I have a sneaking suspicion it’s going to do just that. The only difference between last year and this year is that our inventory is tighter, and without enough dry tinder there’s no way to get that fire quite as hot as last year.

 

Glenwood Springs Sells

Glenwood Springs Sells

I think it’s great when someone comes up to tour some vacation homes on a Friday and buys one on a  Sunday. But I admit to you that in 20 years of selling real estate that’s only happened like once. And maybe that one time I’m remembering is something I’m imagining, like a dream I dreamt so many times that I now believe it to be true. The sorts of buyers that I work with tend to be far more methodical. They tend to be discerning. They tend to be slow moving, sometimes to the point where their deliberations become the reason they miss out on opportunities. Often, being thoughtful can cause buyers to overlook incredible value because they’ve convinced themselves that to be eternally patient is somehow better than being opportunistic.

Last week, I closed on the sale of an old house on Linden in Glenwood Springs. This house is in pretty rough shape, which might be giving it too much credit. It’s a tough old house, but it’s on a double lot with a lake view and a private pier so what difference does it make if a marble dropped in the living room somehow ends up making a visit to each main floor room before it settles?  Like most sales, this one tells a story, and it’s not a story of finding a buyer by placing an ad in the New York Times, or by pulling a full page ad in Mansion for $18,000. This is a story like most Lake Geneva stories.

In February of 2009, this old house came to market for $949,000. For those who weren’t paying attention to the market then, the winter of 2009 was an interesting time. The stock market melted in the fall of 2008, but it wouldn’t stop melting until spring of 2009, and the housing market from late 2008 through late 2009 wasn’t quiet sure what was happening. There were well known local Realtors here telling us, and I quote, “Lake Geneva is Different”. The supposition was that we wouldn’t crash like other markets because we’re better than other markets. We’re stronger, less dependent on leverage, more stable. I admit to finding myself in that camp on some days during that confusing winter.  In February of 2009, the seller in Glenwood Springs was buying that narrative, and so $949k it was.

The market worsened from late 2008 all the way through 2011, and so this house sat. The price was reduced and reduced some more, and then in the fall of 2011 the home sold for $499k. A far cry from the $949k initial list in 2009. Fall of 2011 was likely our market bottom here, but it wasn’t a uniform bottom. Entry level lakefront wouldn’t bottom until mid 2012, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that entry level lakefront still hasn’t recovered from that bottom. The higher reaches of our lakefront market have fared very well since that 2011 bottom, but how has Glenwood Springs done?

The Linden house was sold, but the new owner was mostly buying it because it was there, and at $499k it was cheap. In November 0f 2014, with the markets vastly improved, the old house on Linden came to market for $675k. The owner would make a nice return for the risk they took at the bottom of the market. They would make money, and they would celebrate over drinks. A toast, to the investor!

But last week I sold that home for $465k.  The 2011 risk on owner lost a sizable sum of money. Perhaps $100k when all fees and carrying costs are factored. Now a new buyer, a new opportunity, a $465k price for a double lot with a lakeview and a private pier. Since the 2011 low, two neighboring homes on Linden have sold, both in the $700s, both older homes. I sold one of those homes. The market proved fickle yet again, and the new buyer is the beneficiary of seizing the moment.

But the moment was almost lost, because this buyer had actually looked at the home with serious intent last summer. At that time, the list price was in the mid $500s and we were guessing that a $500k price might get the job done. The buyer decided the timing wasn’t right and we never engaged the seller in a negotiation. Then, in late January, I thought the time might be right, and the buyer bid. The timing wasn’t convenient for the buyer, as a family vacation was already planned and underway, but he found the time and made the bid.  When the dust settled, we had paid $465k- a price well below the 2011 market “bottom” price. The buyer won, and I’m pleased to have represented him.

It would have been easy to watch this property over the years and assume something was wrong with it. It would have been easy to take a pass. Every buyer but one did just that. But the new buyer found the motivation at the right time, and his family now gets to spend summer lakeside, swimming from their private pier, enjoying the Glenwood Springs scene, while the other more methodical buyers remain methodical in their city and suburban homes, wondering when the time will be right.

 

Fontana Lakefront Sells

I’m not going to say what I want to say. I’m not going to say that a house with a modest 110′ worth of cliff frontage shouldn’t sell for five million dollars. I’m not going to talk about the work required to take a basic parcel and turn it into an estate-type parcel; the landscaping, the tennis court, maybe a pool. I’m not going to talk about fit and finish, about what constitutes high end construction and what does not. I’m not going to do any of those things, because a sale is a sale, and the market tells me what it expects and doesn’t really concern itself with what I expect.

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The house sold last week for $5.1MM (I wasn’t involved in the sale). That blue house, the one high on the hill just north of Gordy’s. It sold. It was first listed in 2014 for $6.25MM. Was the home worth $6.25MM? No. And the market proved it, allowing the house to sit and stir on the market for the majority of that year and into this one. Throughout that time, buyers presumably came and went, opting for other things, or for nothing at all, over this house on the hill. But the house had some style, and it had some polish, and it was new and of a contractor pedigree that means something here, and so the house attracted interest but failed to achieve the only measure of interest that matters: A sale.

What happens next is some intrigue, some subterfuge, and disappointment. The listing expired and was removed from the market, but the market knew the home was still for sale. And so it went, a house off the market, an aged asking price that never fell below $6.25MM. If you were simply computer screen watching, as 90% of agents do, you might have been surprised to see this property print in the MLS this week with a $5.1MM closed price. We do not computer screen watch.

The sale now closed was handled by an agent other than the agent that brought the property to market at that lofty price in 2014. The agent who closed the transaction was not the agent who toiled at the high price. This was not the agent that knew the market would react differently to the property if it were listed in the middle to upper fives, rather than the low sixes. The agent who did the fine job of selling this home last week was not the agent who introduced the property to the market, who broadcast it to the agents, who made known the quality and the importance of the home (even if I didn’t agree with the level of importance). The property sold via another agent, and the market, those uninitiated who follow from afar by watching Instagram screens and Facebook posts, will assume that some heroic event was made possible by the introduction of a new face.

When I took over the South Shore Club marketing in 2012, and promptly began selling both homes and lots with a regularity that the market there had never experienced, was it because of me? Was I so much better than the prior representation that I somehow convinced the public that this South Shore Club was worth their time and money? Was I a star who brought with my power of personality and made this development matter again? Or was I just the guy who came on the scene, with messy hair and pointy shoes, and convinced the sellers that the price structure was wrong, and that if they would oblige my suggestion they would find success? It’s the latter, which is why I didn’t take out full page ads telling you how tremendously effective I was. I was merely the person at the helm when the market heated to such a level that success was the only possible outcome.

The same likely applies to the blue house on the hill in Fontana. Was this some feat? Was this a sale that wouldn’t have happened if not for a change in agent or broker? Of course not. This was a sale, like most sales, that had everything to do with price, and had the price of that $6.25MM home been dropped to $5.3MM (the ultimate list price when the property sold) I would suggest that anyone of a 100 different agents in this town could have played the star role. And all of that goes back to this. On television, red carpets and Burning Man parties sell houses. In Lake Geneva, just hack off your price a bit and make your agent a star.

As a market aside, this sale was high. There were multiple parties interested in it, but it was still high. The premium was paid because Fontana is a desirable locale, and new construction in the $5MM range generally doesn’t exist. Buyers can convince themselves to spend $5 something much easier than they can convince themselves to spend $7+. No matter that $7+ gets you a product like 1014 South Lakeshore, a property so vastly superior to the blue house on the hill in every possible measure. Compression is the high end buyer’s friend here, and if you can swing $5 something, better reach a bit and spend $7 something, because that two bucks you left in the market is now worth $1.6 bucks, and a house is so much more fun.