Generally speaking, I’m pretty good at sensing moods. If I take a client out to look at some homes, it’s usually pretty obvious to me if their demeanor belies guarded optimism or downright disinterest. If a customer says all the right things and asks all the right questions but hesitates at just the wrong time, chances are things are not looking up for our burgeoning relationship. In much the same way that customers can be easy to read, I find the market to also lack an effective poker face. Today, despite what everyone else might say and no matter how many minutes agents are logging on their unlimited cell phone plans, I see a market comprised of buyers that sorely lack motivation and conviction.
Sure there are buyers. Lots of them. There are lots and lots of buyers. And there are showings, lots of those too. But there are not lots of contracts being delivered and accepted, even if we did have a nice spurt of activity earlier this spring. April should be a prime month for real estate sales here, but I’m seeing more buyers who are already resigned to an unnecessary fate that finds them tightening the springs on their backyard trampolines on Saturday mornings instead of casting off mooring lines and setting out for a morning boat ride. I see a market hosting plenty of activity, but see very little respect being paid to the rapidly approaching deadline of summer 2011. There are buyers that have been following the market intently, but those same buyers appear content to spend this new summer with Richard Simmons sweating in the suburbs.
There are still inventory issues in certain segments of the market, including a near total lack of entry level lakefront properties (just one lakefront priced under $1.95MM right now). This lack of inventory has increased buyer motivation in that entry level lakefront market, but one segment’s motivation does not cure the ills of the others. There is plenty of top end lakefront inventory, with several lakefront properties in the $2MM range looking awfully enticing to me right now. I particularly love one classic home on Cedar Point, and expect that lakefront (mid $2MMs) to sell soon, and at an eye-popping, or perhaps gauging, price. There are 28 lakefront homes on the market priced in excess of $2MM, a number that includes a partial handful of South Shore Club properties. Speaking of the South Shore Club, I’m not convinced anything will in there will find a buyer this year if the asking prices remain over $3MM.
One particular market on the move is the entry level lake access market, a market that I define as homes priced under $400k. There have been several sales and contracts written of late, including a property that I’m selling in Cedar Point for a number that is making my buyer very (very) happy. And perhaps that’s what it’s going to take to move some of these fence sitting, summer hating buyers off the fence. Perhaps if there are numbers thrown about with a little more regularity, even if those numbers are deemed insulting by some of the owners, perhaps then we’ll get a little more liquidity into this market. The lakefront condo market is still an unfortunate segment, with very little activity occurring in this once thriving individual market. In spite of solid offerings in all price ranges of that market, there hasn’t been a single Geneva lakefront condo sale all year. I expect this to change, but I can’t be sure as to when.
I spent a little time on the water this past weekend. The lake was mine on Saturday afternoon, even if a few new Cobalts cruised past, intent on burning prodigious amounts of gas in the least amount of time possible. The lake was calm, and aside from maybe five or six other boats, the only sounds were the cries of Loons and the hammering of the crews feverishly installing piers. It was a pleasant afternoon, but it was just a harbinger of things yet to come. This summer will be magnificent, and with roughly 130 lake access and lakefront properties available on and near Geneva Lake, there’s really no excuse for spending it anywhere but here. See you at the lake.
(photograph by Matt Mason Photography)