There’s a simple thought relating to markets like ours that supposes a specific pricing segment should prove active in different market segments. The theory would say that if $300-500k condos are selling, then those condos should be selling whether they’re on Geneva Lake, in Geneva National, or Abbey Springs. In the same way, if a $400k lake access home in Loch Vista Club is in demand, then a $400k lake access home in Cedar Point Park should also find an audience. The theory isn’t very difficult to understand, but markets don’t always behave in the most obvious ways.
Consider the lake access market on Geneva Lake right now. There are 34 active homes priced under $700k. Of those 34, no fewer than 12 are pending sale. That’s a very active market segment, with offers flying and summer contracts set to close next month. If that market is supremely busy with buyers seeking a reasonably priced vacation home experience, then the other specific vacation home segments in a similar price range should be similarly active, right?
Abbey Springs currently has 19 available condominiums and single family homes. Of those 19, the MLS shows not a single pending contract. Year To Date, Abbey Springs has closed 18 condos/homes, which isn’t awful, but it certainly pales to the 24 such sales for 2017 YTD. If there weren’t inventory, I’d understand the difference in activity, but there is inventory, even if it is a bit light.
In the same way, Geneva National has 57 available condominiums and homes priced under $700k. Of those 59, twelve are pending sale. That’s a decent amount of activity, especially for Geneva National, which has had its fair share of ups and downs over its lifespan. If the lake access market has approximately 35% of its under $700k inventory under contract, and Geneva National has 20% of its under $700k inventory under contract, then what’s eating Abbey Springs?
The answer, likely, is nothing. It’s just the unique nature of the Lake Geneva vacation home market. That’s why I write this blog as often as I do. Markets here hinge on such low overall volume that a good weekend can right any listing ship. If there were three or four new contracts written in Abbey Springs last week that have yet to show in the MLS, just like that we’d see Abbey Springs marching in lockstep with the remainder of the vacation home segment. If you’re trying to figure out the exact rhythm of sales at the lake, don’t.