My grandmother, on my mother’s side, died at the ripe age of 93. At least I think she was 93. I was in Marco Island when she died, and as a horrible grandson and even worse son, I didn’t fly back early for her funeral. Don’t hate me for that. Even so, my Princeton, Illinois born and raised grandmother had a terrific life. Long, sure. Blessed, you bet. She was a bit portly, my grandmother. She baked wedding cakes and churned chocolate and cream into fudge, and she was a loving, perfect grandmother. What she wasn’t, however, was fit. She might have grown up and lived on a farm, where hard work was an unspoken requirement, but no one, ever, walked in to see her lifting light weights, or jogging on an old wooden treadmill. Stretching? Be serious. My grandmother ate what she wanted, and she did as she pleased. Exercise was not on the list, but fudge and ham sure was. The point here is a simple one, my beloved, late grandmother, is just like Abbey Springs.
During the past three years, while other associations and market segments feverishly hit the weights and logged long, tedious hours on the treadmill in hopes of slimming down to survive, Abbey Springs ate fudge. When the depths of our volume decline peaked during late 2008 and most of 2009, glutinous Abbey Springs hit the buffet more often than yours truly at my December all-inclusive. Abbey Springs has not known the bitterness of a seized up market, and Abbey Springs, in spite of it’s unwise lifestyle choices, remains vibrant, youthful, and by all accounts, full of life. Abbey Springs, in short, doesn’t care about your recession or what has happened in the markets surrounding its leafy borders, Abbey Springs just is.
At least it was, until the second half of 2010. It seems as though all those ham dinners have caught up with Abbey Springs, even while the broader markets are slowing punching their way out of the darkness like I’ve had to do in so many sour dreams. While the rest of the market scratched and clawed their way through a difficult 2009, Abbey Springs effortlessly recorded 17 total sales. During the market resurgence of 2010, Abbey Springs also recorded 17 sales. Abbey Springs, on the surface, is a model of efficiency and stoic nonchalance. Yet when the 2010 numbers are laid bare under this giant halogen flood light I keep handy near my desk, there might be a trend developing that most people have overlooked. By most people I probably mean most agents.
In spite of a solid volume year, all is not brown paper packages tied up in strings at Abbey Springs. While the volume has remained steady, prices have been on the decline. During 2009, prices held fairly steady at Abbey Springs, even as they softened in the broader vacation home market. During 2010, several properties were subjected to significant price reductions before they finally captured their buyer. Proof you say? Consider that 7 of the 17 total sales in Abbey Springs last year closed below $200k. For some context, just 1 sale closed below $200k during all of 2009. The cheap condominiums in Abbey Springs have gotten much, much cheaper. Perhaps the best evidence of this extraordinary softening in the entry level market at Abbey Springs is made obvious by the availability of a property listed in Abbey Springs today with an asking price of just $127,000.
Of the 11 active offerings in all of Abbey Springs as of today (per MLS), at least 9 of them are currently available at prices that are lower than their initial asking price. Market watchers rejoice, as asking price declines are finally prevalent in Abbey Springs. Some of the current offerings actually look quite attractive to me, and my eye can play quite hard to get. I think the market at Abbey Springs is ready to yield a deal or three this January, and I expect several of the current offerings to be sold by the time our spring selling season begins in earnest. 2011 could be a bit rough for Abbey Springs, particularly when viewed against the past two stellar year’s results. I’d be surprised if we registered 17 sales by year end, but the ultimate year end volume will depend hugely on the quality of the inventory.
With extremely light inventory at the moment, it will be paramount to add to those sagging totals during the next month. If new inventory hits the market soon, and the prices reflect the softening trend at Abbey Springs, then 2011 will undoubtedly be another solid year for Abbey Springs. If sellers get ahead of themselves and proclaim 2011 a year of price increases, all those late night fudge binges will almost certainly catch up with Abbey Springs. If they can ultimately catch up to my grandmother, then no one is immune.